By John Richardson AS chemicals companies go back to their budget plans for 2015, and redraw them entirely, here are ten things that they must take into account: The oil price is not going to return to $100 a barrel in a hurry, barring a major geopolitical shock – indeed, there is a chance that […]
Asian Chemical Connections
So Much For The Bonus From Cheaper Oil
By John Richardson THE big turning point in Asian petrochemicals markets can be traced back to around the end of July for three big reasons: • It was broadly accepted from then onwards that China wasn’t going to change its policies. There would be no “blinking” via a big, old-style economic stimulus package. • The […]
September 2008: How History Is Repeating Itself
By John Richardson WE know that weak growth in China, Europe and the US will have a major negative impact on the global economy in 2015. But does this really mean a new global financial crisis? Won’t the world’s economy instead just splutter along as it has done, pretty much, since the last crisis in […]
China’s Contribution To The New Global Financial Crisis
By John Richardson YOU will be committing career suicide if you hold on to the idea that China’s problems only amount to a lack of “old style” economic stimulus – and that a bit of old style stimulus is just around the corner. It is essential that you therefore waste no more time by listening […]
China: Your Four-Point Guide To The Interest Rate Cut
By John Richardson LATE last year China’s government launched one final round of old-style economic stimulus so they could build-up political support ahead of the boldest set of reforms to the economy in at least 20 years. This was clearly, therefore, a tactical decision, as I argued at the time. But a lot of other […]
China Polyethylene: What To Tell Your Boss
By John Richardson YOU are a junior researcher working for a global polyethylene (PE) producer. This is your opportunity to help change “group thinking” and so greatly improve your career prospects. It is not going to be easy, especially if your boss tells you, “I’ve been here many times before. China is just […]
China: The Future Winners And Losers
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL analysis, which assumes that the world of the last six years will be the world of the next six years, is failing. One of the most obvious examples of this is China, where one-dimensional, lack-of-depth conventional thinking still maintains that the rise of the country’s “middle classes” will result in a […]
China’s Polyolefins Supply Surge: The Bigger Picture
By John Richardson ON paper, the polyolefins supply surge in China during 2014 is huge as it involves: Some 2.2m tonnes/year of new polyethylene (PE) capacity, according to this ICIS news article. No less than 4.1m tonnes/year of new polypropylene (PP) capacity. To put this into context, China’s total effective capacity was estimated by ICIS […]
China: Starting All Over Again
By John Richardson WE NOW know is that China’s real GDP growth is probably heading into negative territory, perhaps by as early as Q4 – and if not by then, certainly in 2015. But in order to fully answer “how bad will it get before it gets good again?” we need to also evaluate just how […]
Diesel Demand In China To Fall As Banks Hoard Cash….
..…LETTERS OF CREDIT TAKE 5-6 WEEKS TO OBTAIN, UP FROM 5-6 DAYS – THAT’S IF YOU GET THEM AT ALL By John Richardson DIESEL consumption is another crucial measure of China’s real economic growth because China is the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. This means lots of demand for diesel to run trucks, trains and back-up electricity generators etc. […]
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