By John Richardson THE extraordinary data on China’s polyethylene (PE) market will not go away. We need credible answers. To begin with: Imports were up by 20% in H1 2014 compared with the same period last year, according to Global Trade Information Services. They were up by 33% in the first half of 2014 over […]
Asian Chemical Connections
What A “Low Growth World” Really Looks Like
By John Richardson ONLY six new US crackers would be built over the next five years because of rising construction and labour costs, said Dow Chemical’s CEO, Andrew Liveris, in an earnings conference call last week. This would be out of the 12 crackers that have been announced (see the above table). Demand would therefore […]
Indonesia’s Jokowi: Poverty Alleviation The Key
By John Richardson INDONESIA’S new president seems like a breath of fresh air because he is outside the establishment and has portrayed himself as a man of the people. But one of Joko Widodo’s problems is that the establishment isn’t going to go down with a fight, as the appeal against his victory by rival […]
China Still A Long Way From Solving Its Demographic Crisis
SO much for a new demographic dividend, as we warned last November when China announced that it had relaxed its one-child policy. If you recall, Beijing decided that couples would be allowed to have two children if just one of them was an only child. The previous system stipulated that both parents had to be only […]
Germany Needs To Follow The Example Of Its Footballers
By John Richardson WHAT a fantastic World Cup and Germany were deserved winners. Their flair, dedication, organisation, attention to detail and team spirit were great to see. But in Gideon Rachman’s very thoughtful piece in Tuesday’s Financial Times, he highlights some of the points we’ve been making over Germany and its economy over the last […]
China’s Q2 GDP Number Is Irrelevant
By John Richardson CHINA is due to release its second-quarter GDP growth number today (Wednesday) and so the analytical frenzy is already well under way. For example, AFP writes in this article: “Chinese growth failed to accelerate in the second quarter despite government stimulus measures, an AFP survey predicts, with the world’s second-largest economy forecast […]
China: How Conventional Wisdom Becomes Conventional Wisdom
By John Richardson HOW does conventional wisdom – i.e. the opinion of the majority – become conventional wisdom? This is a subject that the blog pondered over the last few days as it wandered around Euro Disney. Unfortunately, Mickey, Donald and his pals weren’t able to give us an answer. The reason why we dwelled […]
China: Half Of All Loans Collateralised By Land, Real Estate
By John Richardson BEN Bernanke, who as at that time chairman of the Fed, warned in July 2007 that the cost of the US sub-prime crisis would amount to $100bn. To be honest, we struggled to find a final estimate for the final total cost of the crisis, but these words from Wikipedia give just […]
China Coal-To-Olefins: Water Not An Issue
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL wisdom has it that the water issue stands in the way of the growth of the coal-to-olefins (CTO) industry in China. The process consumes a lot of water – between 15-20 tonnes for every tonne of olefins produced – which compares with 0.80-2.17 tonnes of water for every tonne of oil […]
China Commodities Fraud: The Global Implications
By John Richardson An eerie calm has descended over financial and commodity markets with volatility at a record low. The calm is eerie because it reminds us of the build-up to September 2008. Back then, not one single mainstream economist saw the sub-prime-led collapse coming and at the moment, the same feels as if it […]
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