By John Richardson WE thought it would be helpful for chemicals to summarise our thoughts on China as chemicals and other companies prepare their strategies for 2015. See our ten-point guide below, with relevant links to our previous coverage and coverage elsewhere: The Deng Xiaoping growth model went on far for too long, especially post […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Demand For Lending In Steep Decline
By John Richardson WHEN the demand for lending in any economy starts to decline, you know that the people who make up that economy have an understanding that things are likely to get worse before they get better. Hence, chemicals and other companies need to take note of the latest survey from the People’s Bank […]
China Excess Phenol Capacity A New Strategic Tool
By John Richardson STANDARD Western cost-per-tonne analysis has never really been applied in China’s petrochemicals industry – and it never will be applied. In the past, we have seen how petrochemicals plants have often been run at operating rates of 100% or more, even in the lousiest of market conditions, in order to guarantee supplies […]
Eight Steps To Realising This Will Be Worse Than Lehman Bros
By John Richardson WE are going through a process of realisation at the moment. It is not a linear process – i.e. not all people will be at the same stage. Equally, chemicals and other company executives will move backwards and forwards between different stages in the eight-step process. We can only hope that the […]
Walking Away From Reality At Tianjin World Economic Forum
By John Richardson SOME of the world’s global business leaders don’t seem to get it. This is the only conclusion we can reach from their reported reaction to Li Keqiang’s opening speech at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, China, yesterday. “Premier Li Keqiang failed to offer global business leaders any fresh solutions to the […]
China’s Real Growth Could Be Weakest Since 1995
By John Richardson WE all should know that China’s published GDP figures are meaningless as, of course, China’s premier Li Keqiang has told us so. But the trouble is that so many analysts continue to talk about another burst of stimulus being just around the corner, which will help China achieve its 2014 GDP growth […]
Asia Chemicals Will Need To Cut Operating Rates
By John Richardson THE above chart, from Paul Satchell’s latest Volume Proxy*, indicates that the downturn in Asian chemicals markets has become more entrenched. “The continued decline in the Asia line lends further support to our earlier assertion that the peak manufacturing season in China is likely to disappoint,” writes Satchell, a UK-based chemicals analyst […]
China: “The Dog Ate My Homework” Won’t Do
By John Richardson TWO Chinese plastic processing companies are in financial difficulties because they have used raw-material purchases for speculation, a polyolefins industry source told the blog. “The companies are in trouble because they resold their inventories in order to invest directly in real estate, or indirectly in real estate via the shadow-banking system. This […]
China And Starting From Entirely The Wrong Position
By John Richardson THE majority of people analysing data on China’s economy are still getting it wrong. They think that the worst the numbers get, the more likely it is that the government will panic. Predictions are widespread, therefore, of an interest rate cut and a reduction in the bank reserve requirement later this year. […]
China’s Polyethylene Data: Credible Answers Required
By John Richardson THE extraordinary data on China’s polyethylene (PE) market will not go away. We need credible answers. To begin with: Imports were up by 20% in H1 2014 compared with the same period last year, according to Global Trade Information Services. They were up by 33% in the first half of 2014 over […]
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