CHINA’S PP net imports could total 5m tonnes in 2040, or the country may instead be in a net export position of 9m tonnes.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s PP demand in 2023 heading for a 1% decline on risk of just 2.5% GDP growth
A FALL IN China’s PP imports in April and low operating rates at some China plants suggest 2023 demand growth at minus 1%
China PP import and export complexities require much deeper and wider analysis
China’s PP net exports could be more than 2m tonnes in both 2024 and 2025. This would likely make China the fourth biggest exporter in Asia and the Middle East.
China PP demand could grow by 3% in 2023, down from the 2000-2020 average of 10%
THE EARLY DATA suggest that China’s polypropylene (PP) demand could grow by 3% in 2023. This would be in line with the base case forecast I provided in February.
China PE and PP downcycle a long, long way from being over
The average China PE spread between 1 January and 17 March this year was just $290, the lowest since our assessments began.
Between 2000 and 2021, before last year’s collapse, the annual spread averaged $532/tonne. This means that until spreads increase by 83% from their current levels, there will have been no recovery..
China’s long-term PP demand growth may turn negative, shifting the focus to value from volumes
STRONG upside PP demand growth scenarios for the rest of the world might still not enough to cancel out negative growth in China
A flood of PP no matter how what the 2023-2025 demand growth
EVEN if China’s PP demand growth is 14% this year – double our forecast – and growth in other regions is higher than we expect:
Global capacity in excess of demand would be 18m tonnes in 2023 compared with a 8m tonne/year average in 2000-2022,
China polyolefins in 2023: Demand and supply workshops crucial
This year is a great deal harder to predict than 2022,, hence my latest outlook for China’s PP demand (see the chart below), which includes the two extremes of our ICIS base case for 6% growth versus my worst-case downside of minus 5%.
A perfect global PP storm: China’s collapsing demand and rising capacity
THIS IS A POLYPROYPENE ((PP) world being turned upside down. China has entered a period of lower growth with capacity additions so big that imports are collapsing as China also starts to substantially increase exports.
China’s styrene demand in 2022 could be negative for the first time since 1990
China’s net styrene imports in 2022 could also fall to just 290,000 tonnes from 1.5m tonnes in 2021 and 2.8m tonnes in 2020.
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