Resilience is set to become the key issue as we look forward to H2, as I note in a new analysis for ICIS Chemical Business. None of us have ever seen the combinations of events that are potentially ahead of us. And none of us can be sure which way they will develop. So it […]
Chemicals and the Economy
CEOs need new business models amid downturn
Many indicators are now pointing towards a global downturn in the economy, along with paradigm shifts in demand patterns. CEOs need to urgently build resilient business models to survive and prosper in this New Normal world, as I discuss in my 2019 Outlook and video interview with ICIS. Global recession is the obvious risk as we start […]
BASF’s second profit warning highlights scale of the downturn now underway
The chemical industry is easily the best leading indicator for the global economy. And thanks to Kevin Swift and his team at the American Chemistry Council, we already have data showing developments up to October, as the chart shows. It confirms that consensus hopes for a “synchronised global recovery” at the beginning of the year […]
Chemical industry is the best indicator of EM outlook – and the outlook is not good
Policymakers would be better off following the fortunes of the chemical industry, if they wanted to forecast the global economy, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Capacity utilisation (CU%) in the chemical industry has long been the best leading indicator for the global economy. The […]
US chemicals slip back into Contraction mode as cycle peaks
The above chart from the excellent American Chemistry Council (ACC) weekly report may look a bit baffling at first. But it is worth attention, as it highlights the current state of the industry in real time: It shows US chemical shipments on the vertical axis, and change in inventory on the horizontal axis Both are shown […]
BBC reports ‘How China Fooled the World’
Last night, the BBC ran a 1 hour documentary by its senior editor Robert Peston, who won countless awards for his work during the subprime crisis. It completely confirmed the arguments put forward by the blog in recent months about the scale of the economic crisis now facing China. The BBC introduced the documentary as follows: […]
Seven global implications of China’s new policies
Everyone remembers the old joke, “Why did the elephant wear dark glasses?”, and the answer, “So that she wouldn’t be recognised”. A new version popped into the blog’s mind this week, when finishing its new Research Note on the impact of China’s new policies on the global economy: “Why did nobody notice that China was the ‘elephant […]
Global economy approaches a T-junction
Intuition’s great benefit is that it provides a different perspective. Thus the intuitive concept behind the launch of the IeC Downturn Monitor was that April 2011 would prove a watershed moment for policymakers’ Recovery Scenario after 2008’s financial crisis. Their Scenario essentially had two elements: Acting as a ‘lender of last resort’ when the major banks stopped lending to each other and the […]
Earnings disappoint again, as companies face challenge of slowing global growth
Most of today’s executives and policymakers grew up during the SuperCycle. Many therefore continue to believe that a return to constant growth is somehow inevitable. Sadly, of course, they are doomed to disappointment. And disappointment is the predominant message from the blog’s usual quarterly review of company results. Thus BASF note that “achieving our earnings target […]
Australia’s tax revenue forecast dives A$33bn in 10 weeks on China slowdown
How has your company reacted to the clear signals from China’s new leadership that they intend to take the economy on a new path? Has it updated its existing contingency plan, and warned employees and shareholders that things may get very tough for a few years? If not, why not? Even companies who don’t trade directly with China […]
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