The question came over innocuously enough. “Market prices for ethylene are structurally the highest in Europe and lowest in US with Asia moving in between. … For MEG, however, my understanding is that there is not such a high difference between market prices in US and EU. What is the reason for that? Main cost […]
Chemical Connections
China’s new five-year-plan to accelerate petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a […]
Consumers will experience better days, and with newer clothes
Most of the statistics bantered about right now are coronavirus-related, which means they are monotonous at best and heartbreaking at worst. Even New Zealand, which stood out as an example of how to handle the crisis, celebrated 100 days of no reported infections only to have four spring up a few days later, which spurred […]
Why a new stimulus deal could be critical for US polyethylene demand
By John Richardson GOVERNMENT stimulus is crucial for protecting polyethylene (PE) markets in the West from the worst effects of the pandemic, in my opinion. The developing world is a different story because of the rise of extreme poverty. There are other factors behind the resilience of PE demand the US and the EU such […]
With so much hanging in the balance, let data light the way
The fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020 is the most consequential quarter in generations. It feels like hyperbole to type and sounds just as sensationalistic when said aloud, but not since Q4 1941, when the bombing of Pearl Harbor changed the US’ relationship with the rest of the globe for the next 80 years, has there […]
Chemical Investor Forum: Exploring regression analysis to forecast Westlake’s earnings
The multiple linear regression analysis technique shows a 0.87 R-squared value for Westlake Chemical’s quarterly EBITDA (2012-2020) as the dependant variable against a basket of 17 ICIS chemical prices. This suggests that in 87% of cases, Westlake’s quarterly earnings can be explained by movements in the basket of ICIS chemical prices. Financial analysts can use […]
China moves closer to Iran as tensions with the US build: Implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson Opinions and emotions and can shape how we interpret data, but, as we all know, our personal views need to be put on hold and our emotions held in check when the numbers are being crunched. This is of course easier said than done on highly emotive subjects such as the widening […]
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