The election’s timing could hardly be worse, with Johnson now just a caretaker premier. Russia is threatening food and energy security by cutting fertiliser and gas supplies. The UK should be working very closely with the EU on these critical issues. But instead, we may well see candidates attack the Protocol and the EU to win constituency support.
Chemicals and the Economy
US Supreme Court throws a lifeline to Democrats for the mid-term elections
Social and political issues were always more important than economics before the SuperCycle. And now they are resurfacing again. Does an individual woman have the right to choose what to do with her body? Or can judges tell her what she can, and can’t do? It is early days, but many women may choose to vote Democrat because of this issue in November.
Businesses face difficult 2 months for Great Britain – N Ireland trade
The N Ireland Protocol continues to be in the news. It was signed nearly 2 years ago, and described by UK premier Boris Johnson as being “oven-ready“. But as the House of Lords reported last week: “Addressing the implications for Northern Ireland and Ireland of UK withdrawal from the EU has been the most fraught, […]
Competence starts to replace charisma as a key factor in politics as the pandemic continues
The appalling tragedy in India reminds us that the Covid pandemic is very far from being solved. And more generally, the latest Ipsos ‘What worries the world’ global poll shows high levels of concern over unemployment, inequality, corruption and crime. 2/3rds of people think their country is heading on the wrong track: Pandemic concerns continue […]
“We may be opponents, but we are not enemies, we’re all Americans”
Groundhog Day 2, last week’s made-for-TV movie set in Pennsylvania, was the perfect lockdown choice. Every morning, one could check the vote tallies. And every evening one could go to bed, knowing that the same screens would be repeating in the morning. Until, eventually, we finally awoke on Sunday morning to a new world, like […]
UK election offers voters no middle ground in December
Pity the poor UK voters as they prepare to vote in probably the most critical election of their lives. As they battle the wind and rain to vote in the first December election for 100 years, they already know there are only 3 likely outcomes: Tory majority, Brexit by end-January, EU trade deal uncertain Labour […]
D-Day commemorations mark end of a political era
Last week, 95 year-old Harry Read repeated the jump that he and his fellow parachutists had made as the advance party for the D-Day landings. He told ITV News in a video interview that before the 1944 jump, their Commanding Officer had explained in matter of fact terms that: “50% of them would be casualties […]
Wishful thinking dominates Brexit debate as the UK heads towards No Deal on 31 October
One of the best things I learned at school was the simple mnemonic: “To ASSUME can make an ASS of U and ME” Unfortunately, most of those involved in the UK’s Brexit debate have failed to remember it. As a result, it seems likely that the UK will end up leaving the European Union on 31 […]
Political and economic risks rise as US mid-term elections near
This is the Labor Day weekend in the USA – the traditional start of the mid-term election campaign. And just as in September 2016, the Real Clear Politics poll shows that most voters feel their country is going in the wrong direction. The demographic influences that I highlighted then are also becoming ever-more important with time: […]
US PE exports on front line as Trump changes trade policies
It is almost a year since Donald Trump became President. And whilst he has not followed through on many of his promises, he has indeed introduced the major policy changes that I began to discuss in September 2015, when I first suggested he could win the election and that the Republicans could control Congress: “In the […]
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