Oil prices are finally starting to reconnect with other fossil fuel prices, as the chart shows. It compares US WTI prices in terms of $/MMBtu value (WTI/5.8), versus US natural gas and coal prices: In January 1990, WTI was $3.94 versus natgas at $2.30 and coal at $1.45 (all $/MMBtu) In January 2000, WTI was […]
Chemicals and the Economy
12 million missing workers highlight US GDP slowdown
Employment income is critical for most Americans and for the US economy. The above chart shows how the key factor – the participation rate – has changed since records began in 1948. It shows July data, to avoid the need for seasonal adjustment, split by Men, Women and Total: □ Last month’s Total rate was 63.4%, versus the […]
13m missing American workers highlight economic slowdown
There’s something very wrong with the US jobs market, as the slide above confirms. Commentators professed to be surprised by the disappointing May report last Friday, but its hard to know why: The overall participation rate has been in decline since July 1997, when it reached 68%: today it is only 62.7% Male participation is at […]
UK’s ageing population causes earnings to decline
The UK economy appears to be recovering well from the financial crisis. But appearances can be deceptive. Certainly employment has risen for both men and women since 2009, and the jobless rate has fallen. But new data yesterday from the Office for National Statistics highlights how, despite these achievements, total incomes have been falling in real […]
US jobs growth fails to keep pace with population growth
The US population reached 320m this year, an 11.35m increase versus 2010, according to the US Census Bureau: “The U.S. is expected to experience a birth every 8 seconds and one death every 12 seconds, whilst net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 33 seconds. All these factors […]
US jobs growth stalls as shale gas bubble ends
Apparently Friday’s US jobs numbers disappointed the experts. The consensus forecast was that 250k jobs would have been created in March – yet only half the forecast actually appeared. Even more tellingly, hiring estimates for January/February were revised down. Separate data also showed weak growth in wages and spending. None of this was really a surprise, […]
Oil price collapse will likely end recovery in US housing starts
We now have full US Census Bureau data for housing starts in 2014, which shows: Starts returned to the 1m level for the first time since 2007 They were also nearly double the low of 554k seen in 2009 But at 1.006m, they were less than half of the 2.068m peak in 2005 The data also […]
US economic recovery at risk as energy bubble bursts
The bursting of the US energy bubble is looking more and more like a replay of the sub-prime bubble in 2008. As investor Warren Buffett has noted, “its only when the tide goes out, that you learn who has been swimming naked .” And nearly a year ago, former central banker William White warned the problems in the global economy were: “Worse […]
US jobs growth at risk with end of the shale gas advantage
US job markets have been very difficult since the Crisis began in 2008. In the past, it has typically taken 30 months for employment levels to return to their previous peak. But this time, it took until last September for the US to finally recapture the 139 million jobs peak of November 2007. The trend in the […]
US jobless dominated by Blacks, Hispanics and those without high school diplomas
Financial markets today only care about one thing – whether central banks will continue to provide more low-cost financing to support higher asset prices. Thus markets liked last Friday’s weak US jobs report. They hoped that the US Federal Reserve would slow its tapering process as a result. This inverted logic explains why bad news for the […]
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