Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Northeast Asia ethylene and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets have seen a slower-than-expected tempo of spot talks for June cargoes, with the main driver of uncertainty being unclear start-up timelines from new ethylene derivative expansions, particularly from Chinese PVC. Around 1.5 million tonnes/year of new PVC supply may face start-up postponements Import discussions on ethylene slow pending clearer demand picture PVC demand clouded by India-Pakistan tensions amid pre-monsoon season In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Jonathan Chou and Josh Quah discuss their findings from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The tariff deal that the US has reached with China did not eliminate the duties on steel, aluminium and auto parts, all of which could lower automobile production and reduce demand for the plastics and chemicals used to make the vehicles. The US maintained its 25% sectoral tariffs on Chinese imports of steel, aluminium and auto parts. It levies the same tariffs on imports from much of the world. Imports from Canada and Mexico can avoid the tariffs if they comply with the nations' trade agreement, known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Oxford Economics expects US auto production will fall by -2.0% to -0.9% year on year in 2025. Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, lowered its US auto sales forecast by 6.7% and warned of production cuts. WHY ARE AUTOS IMPORTANT TO CHEMSAutomobiles made in North American contain an average of 198 kg of plastic, according to ICIS, making them an important end market for producers. Polypropylene (PP) is the most commonly used resin in North American automobiles followed by polyurethanes and nylon, as shown in the following charts. In addition, automobiles are large end markets for paints and coatings. In all, the typical automobile has nearly $4,000 worth of chemistry WHAT CHEMS SAY ABOUT AUTOSCelanese, whose Engineered Materials segment is heavily dependent on autos, stressed the uncertainty about the effects that tariffs will have on this key end market during the second half of the year. It will prepare by reducing inventory, controlling costs and lowering operating rates if warranted by demand weakness. Polyurethanes producer Huntsman is seeing automobile build rates drop low-single digit percentages. By the time order patterns trickle through original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and down to chemical companies, Huntsman is seeing double-digit drops in some order patterns. AdvanSix warned that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting the market for nylon and other engineering plastics. Axalta Coating Systems, which makes auto paint, warned of a $50 million gross annualized charge from tariffs. Axalta lowered its 2025 sales guidance to $5,300-5,375 million from $5,350-5,400 million. Earnings guidance remained unchanged. Steps that Axalta could take to offset a portion of that hit include insourcing production capacity to domestic plants; sourcing raw materials locally; reformulating products; managing strategic inventory; and executing pricing actions. TARIFFS RAISE AUTO COSTS, THREATEN OUTPUTTariffs on auto inputs will increase costs for vehicles, and producers will likely pass through a portion of those higher costs to customers. The size of those cost pass throughs will play a large role in the tariffs' effects on chemical demand. Higher prices for automobiles will discourage sales. Lower sales will reduce auto production and cut demand for plastics and chemicals used to make those vehicles. THE EFFECT SO FAR ON AUTO BUILDSPrior to the announcement of the US and China trade deal, Ford estimated that the gross cost impact from the tariffs is $2.5 billion. Among that, half will come from imported and exported parts as well as the effect that steel and aluminium tariffs will have on domestic prices. The rest is from imported vehicles. Already, Stellantis halted production for two weeks at a plant in Windsor, Ontario Province, Canada, because of tariffs. AUTO'S EXPOSURE TO TARIFFSThe US auto industry's exposure to tariffs is not trivial because the country imports enormous amounts of auto parts, steel and aluminium. Many of these products are subject to 25% sectoral tariffs or 10% baseline tariffs. More than 50% of the content of cars assembled in the US is imported, according to a 3 May CNN article, citing US government statistics. AUTO PART TARIFFSThe following chart breaks down 2024 general imports by country for auto parts under the 8708 code of the harmonized tariff schedule (HTS). Figures are in billions of dollars. Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) Not all auto parts will be hit by the 25% tariffs. Some parts are excluded. Those from Mexico and Canada will escape the levy if they comply with the USMCA. STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFSThe following chart shows 2024 general imports of iron and steel under the HTS codes 7206-7224. These codes cover iron and nonalloy steel; stainless steel; and other alloy steel. The chart breaks down the imports by country and lists the value in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC Metal imports from the UK will be exempt under a recent trade deal, as indicated by a press conference in that country. Imports from Canada and Mexico would be exempt from these tariffs if they comply with the USMCA. Not all of these steel imports would be used in automobiles But the chart does illustrate that the US imports iron and steel from many countries that will be covered by the 25% tariffs. The following chart provides a similar breakdown for 2024 general imports of articles of iron and steel under Chapter 72. Figures are in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC The following chart provides the country breakdown for 2024 general imports of aluminium and articles thereof under Chapter 76. Figures are in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC OTHER THREATS TO DOMESTIC AUTO PRODUCTIONTariffs are taxes, and taxes reduce economic growth. Slower GDP growth translates to lower sales and production. ICIS expects that US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024. Growth in 2026 could be 1.7%. The country has a 34% chance of slipping into a recession in the next 12 months. Many US consumers bought automobiles to avoid paying tariffs. Those purchases made ahead of the tariffs will come at the expense of future sales. US SELF-SUFFICIENT FOR MANY PLASTICS, CHEMS USED IN AUTOSMany of the plastics and chemicals used by the US auto industry are produced in abundance in the country, and that will limit customers' exposure to the nation's tariffs for those products used in automobiles. The US is self-sufficient in polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polyethylene (PE), a plastic used in packaging and fuel tanks. Nylon is excluded from the tariffs. Polyurethanes, the second most common polymer used in automobiles, are made with methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), and a substantial amount of US MDI imports comes from China. The US also relies on imports of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), much of which comes from Mexico, South Korea and Taiwan. Additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten, Joseph Chang and Jonathan Lopez Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows automobile. Image by Shutterstock)

15-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Sluggish domestic demand weighed on Japan’s petrochemical industry, resulting in reduced production volumes in 2024 compared with previous years, according to the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association (JPCA). 2024 ethylene output falls 6.3% Production of five major plastics shrink by 5% Japan economy forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2025 “Although some crackers in Southeast Asia and East Asia are reducing production, there are plans for capacity increases in crackers that significantly exceed demand in China,” JPCA said in a report prepared for the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025. The conference is being held in Bangkok, Thailand from 15-16 May. Operating rates of crackers in Japan are expected to remain lowered, as with previous years, JPCA said. Japan's ethylene production in 2024 fell 6.3% year on year to 4.99 million tonnes, as domestic crackers have operated at below 90% of capacity since August 2022, with the monthly average run rate falling below 80% five times in 2024. Japan’s real GDP growth rate in 2024 was 0.1% amid weak exports, neutral growth in private consumption, and a slight increase in government consumption. For the whole of 2024, the country’s total production of five major plastics – namely, linear density polyethylene (PE), high density PE (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – declined to 5.7 million tonnes, lower by 5.2% from 2023. Production (in thousand tonnes) Product 2024 2023 % change Ethylene 4,989 5,324 -6.3 LDPE 1,160 1,219 -4.8 HDPE 656 665 -1.4 PP 1,935 2,075 -6.8 PS 549 564 -2.7 PVC 1,406 1,496 -6.0 Styrene monomer (SM) 1,297 1,428 -9.2 Ethylene glycol (EG) 276 264 4.6 Acrylonitrile (ACN) 303 341 -11.2 Sources: METI, Japan Styrene Industry Association (PS, SM) and Vinyl Environmental Council (PVC) Domestic demand as ethylene equivalent in 2024  inched up by 1.4% to 3.92 million tonnes, according to JPCA data. While the global economy is expected to grow steadily in 2025, there is a risk of deterioration in the global economy and a corresponding decline in demand due to geopolitical issues, JPCA said, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the tariff policy of the US Trump administration. The latter has caused costs of raw material prices to soar, JPCA said. Meanwhile, Japan's real GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to accelerate to 1.2%, supported by increased exports, sustained growth in personal consumption, and increases in capital investment, said JPCA. Higher wage hikes in 2025 should help boost domestic consumption, it said. In the report, JPCA called on the petrochemical industry to adopt new roles and responsibilities in achieving carbon neutrality and advancing a recycling-oriented society. The report outlined a two-stage timeline: first, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from existing facilities by immediately deploying currently available technologies; and second, to establish sustainable development goals by gradually introducing new technologies into society. “Not only corporate efforts but … collaboration and system design throughout the supply chain are required,” JPCA said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

15-May-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem swung to a net profit in the first quarter, year on year, but sales and earnings fell slightly as the global petrochemicals downturn continues, management at the Brazilian polymers major said on Monday. Speaking to reporters from Sao Paulo, the company’s CEO and CFO described the operating environment as persistently challenging on the back of excess capacity and emerging international trade conflicts. The company’s net profit stood in Q1 at $113 million, up from a net loss of $273 million in the same quarter of 2024, while recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) stood 2% lower, however, at $224 million. Braskem produces mostly polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), some of the most widely used polymers and which remain under intense pressure due to global overcapacities. Braskem (in $ million) Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Change Q4 2024 Q1 2025 vs Q4 2024 Sales 3,331 3,618 -8% 3,285 1% Net profit/loss 113 -273 N/A -967 N/A Recurring EBITDA 224 230 -2% 102 121% Brazilian operations achieved 74% utilization rates, up 4% from the previous quarter, while US and European facilities operated at 80% capacity, a 13% improvement, and Mexican operations reached 79% utilization (up 2%). The improved performance was primarily driven by better spreads and increased sales volumes, particularly in Brazil, Europe and the US. CHINA PP COMPETITION: ADDs?Much of the earnings call with reporters on Monday focused on the global trade tensions and competition from Chinese producers, particularly in the Brazilian market. "The question of tariffs generated much instability and many doubts in this first quarter," said CEO Roberto Ramos, who noted how negotiations over the weekend between China and the US in Switzerland could potentially alter the tariffs war. "This discussion between the two countries should move toward some kind of normality. Therefore, I think when all is said and done, after all this commotion, very little will remain,” he said. He highlighted a few aspects which have affected petrochemicals in the trade war so far, such as China's decision not to impose retaliatory tariffs on US natural gas-based ethane imports, which he said stand at approximately 18 million tonnes annually. That was a positive, he said, because ethane from the US to China would continue uninterrupted, preventing a scenario where excess ethane in the US would have driven down prices and potentially created advantages for ethane-based producers. Braskem operates most of its plants in Brazil on crude-derived naphtha. However, Chinese authorities did maintain tariffs on propane imports from the US, which affects Chinese PP producers and that did affect Braskem, said the CEO. “China has a surplus in PP, so it is a net exporter, and the main destination of this excess PP production has been precisely Brazil, which has greatly affected us here in the Brazilian market,” said Ramos. "They wanted to become self-sufficient regarding both resins [PP and PE], had a project to become self-sufficient in PP by 2030, but achieved this much earlier, by 2024. Therefore, as there isn't enough consumption for the resin, they're forced to sell, and they sell here at a price we can't compete with." In response to this competitive pressure, Ramos confirmed Braskem is actively pursuing trade remedies in talks with the authorities, which could, among others, include instruments like antidumping duties (ADDs) against China but also against the US, also a big producer with excess product in some materials. "Yes, we are studying trade protection measures in relation to China, as, moreover, we are also doing in relation to US PE producers, who also place resin here at a lower price than they sell in their respective countries," he said. Management said they continue to pursue the "switch to gas" strategy, which involves systematically reducing dependence on naphtha as feedstock, particularly in Brazilian operations, in favor of more competitive ethane-based production. Despite recent decreases in oil prices and consequently naphtha prices, executives said the price differential between naphtha and ethane remains substantial at approximately $350-370/tonne, sometimes even higher. RECOVERY STILL WAITINGAlthough some of Braskem’s margin spreads posted improvements during Q1, the CEO was not too optimistic about a strong recovery anytime soon. “I do not imagine that spreads will recover further in the short term, because there is still an excess supply of ethylene but also of propylene, and therefore the plants are operating at lower capacity. Apart from the US producers who are processing at over 90% of their capacity utilization, we here have around 70%, and the Europeans have even less than that,” said the CEO. “As long as this excess installed capacity still exists, as long as the pace of construction of new plants in the US and China continues, there is no reason to imagine that spreads will react, because the supply and demand situation continues to be an excess of supply in relation to demand. “If you have an excess installed capacity of 30 million tonnes of ethylene, for example, therefore of PE, and if the market increases its consumption volume by 5 million tonnes per year, you will need at least six years to be able to clear this excess supply. Therefore, there is no structural reason to think about an increase in spreads."

12-May-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 2 May. NEWSBrazil chems production still impacted by imports despite protectionist measures – Abiquim Brazil’s chemicals production structural woes, such as high production costs, remain while imports continue making their way unabated, despite protectionist measures deployed by the government, according to the director general at producers’ trade group Abiquim. INSIGHT: Mexico’s chemicals revive as tariffs woes ease (part 1)When Donald Trump won the US election with a larger-than-expected majority, Mexican chemicals players started making plans for their businesses under what promised to be a disruptive second term for trade relations between the two countries. Argentina savoring economic spring but recovery for all biggest task still pending – Evonik execAfter years in the doldrums, Argentina's economy is finally going through some sort of “spring” thanks to sectors such as agricultural, mining and energy – but the country, however, is yet to achieve a recovery which works for all Argentinians, an executive at Germany’s chemicals major Evonik said. Mexico’s improved fortunes on US tariffs propping up petchems demand – Entec execMexico’s chemicals fortunes seem to be turning for the better after the country was spared from the most punitive US’ import taxes, according to an executive at chemicals distributor major Ravago’s Mexican subsidiary. INSIGHT: Argentina faces up to rising inflation after currency controls liftedArgentina’s decision to end foreign currency restrictions is set to devalue the peso’s official exchange rate and increase inflation but it was a vital step to normalizing a dysfunctional exchange rate system. Mexico launches antidumping investigation into US PVC importsThe Mexican government officially launched an antidumping investigation into imports of suspension polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin from the US, following allegations of unfair trade practices that have impacted domestic industry at the end of April. Brazil's Braskem Q1 higher priced PE, PP sales in Q1 cannot offset lower PVC volumesBraskem resin sales in its domestic market dropped by 4% in Q1, year on year, due to lower polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) sales volumes as the producer prioritized sales with higher added value, the Brazilian polymers major said. Mexico’s Orbia earnings fall again while ‘trying’ to guess potential green shoots – CEOOrbia’s Q1 sales and earnings fell again, year on year, with the Mexican chemicals producer already writing off any significant recovery in 2025 and “trying to figure out” potential green shoots for 2026, its CEO said on Friday. PRICINGLatAm PE international prices steady to lower on competitive US export pricesInternational polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to lower as US export prices remain competitive. LatAm PP domestic, international prices fall in Colombia, Mexico on cheaper feedstocksDomestic and international polypropylene (PP) prices fell in Colombia and Mexico tracking lower US propylene costs. In other Latin American (LatAm) countries, prices were unchanged. LatAm – Argentina PP domestic price range narrows as distributors try to compete with cheaper imports Domestic polypropylene (PP) price range was assessed as narrower in Argentina. Distributors' prices have fallen to compete with cheaper imports.

05-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 11 April. UPDATE: Oil, Asia chemical shares extend rout on recession fears By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Apr-25 16:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices tumbled by more than $2/barrel on Monday, with shares of petrochemical firms in the region falling on heightened concerns that a brewing global trade war could lead to an economic recession. Vietnam Q1 GDP growth slows to 6.98% ahead of Trump's tariffs By Jonathan Yee 07-Apr-25 17:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam’s economy expanded by 6.93% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 but looming reciprocal tariffs has dampened its growth outlook for the rest of the year. Asia petrochemical market players pause discussions amid Trump tariff uncertainties By Jonathan Yee 07-Apr-25 16:59 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market players across petrochemical markets are pausing discussions as they await clarity on the US' ‘reciprocal’ tariff enforcement and potential retaliatory measures from affected countries. Hefty tariffs to slow China’s chemical capacity expansion By Fanny Zhang 07-Apr-25 17:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies is expected to exacerbate China’s chemical overcapacity as demand could weaken further, while higher costs stemming from tit-for-tat tariffs would slow down capacity expansion in the country. PODCAST: Impact of US tariffs on aromatics trade flows from Asia By Damini Dabholkar 07-Apr-25 19:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The announcement of import tariffs by the Trump administration is likely to see a shift in aromatics trade flows from Asia, especially given the disparity in tariff rates on different countries. China petrochemical futures extend losses on latest US tariff threats By Fanny Zhang 08-Apr-25 13:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets were mostly lower on Tuesday morning, extending their losses from previous session amid worries over an escalating trade war with the US. INSIGHT: China expands carbon market; hydrogen key to decarbonize steel sector By Patricia Tao 08-Apr-25 16:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has officially included its steel sector in the national carbon emissions trading system, a major step toward greening one of its most carbon-intensive industries. Asia glycerine supply ample as US-bound exports to decline amid trade war By Helen Yan 08-Apr-25 15:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's glycerine market is facing more supply than expected, with regional suppliers seeking other outlets outside of the US, following the tariffs launched by the US on imports from southeast Asia. INSIGHT: Trade war may affect China PP demand more than supply By Lucy Shuai 08-Apr-25 18:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–With the escalation of the US-China trade war, it is expected that the impact on demand for China's polypropylene (PP) will be greater than on supply. South Korea ups emergency funding support for embattled auto sector By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Apr-25 12:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea on Wednesday announced emergency measures to support its export-reliant automotive industry in response to a 25% US tariff on vehicles and parts which will take effect on 10 April. INSIGHT: Confusion and anxiety hit Asia oleochemicals market amid US tariffs By Helen Yan 09-Apr-25 16:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s oleochemicals market is characterized by confusion and anxiety following the steeper-than-expected tariffs launched by the US Trump administration on oleochemicals imports into the US. Asia benzene sinks to lowest daily price in over four years By Angeline Soh 09-Apr-25 19:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia benzene import prices on a free on board (FOB) South Korea basis fell to their daily lowest in more than four years. ICIS China March petrochemical index falls; hefty tariffs to hit demand hard By Yvonne Shi 10-Apr-25 13:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index in end-March fell to 1,121.73, down by 3.1% from end-February, with the US-China trade war likely to weigh heavily on overall demand in both the domestic and export markets. INSIGHT: New China PE capacity may cover US supply loss amid trade tensions By Joanne Wang 10-Apr-25 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyethylene (PE) market demand faces significant challenges following the US’ continued imposition of tariffs, with domestic prices of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) down by 4% so far this week on expectations of new capacity coming online. US ethanol exports to Philippines expected to remain duty free; tariff on Brazil increased By Evangeline Chueng 10-Apr-25 17:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US ethanol exports to the Philippines are expected to remain unaffected by the recent tariff changes, as the country has maintained duty-free access since 2016. INSIGHT: China-US tariffs altering Asia olefins supply and demand balance By Joey Zhou 10-Apr-25 18:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market dynamics for Asia propylene prices in Q2 2025, originally trending bearish amid long supply from China, are shifting on the back of US tariff policy and its impact. Uncertainty remains the watch-word in this market. Asia petrochemical shares drop as US tariffs on imports from China hit 145% By Jonathan Yee 11-Apr-25 10:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian chemical shares fell on Friday amid deepening concerns over a global trade war after the White House clarified that the US' tariffs on China has risen to 145%. INSIGHT: India anchors PVC future amid global market re-alignment By Aswin Kondapally 11-Apr-25 15:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s vinyl industry is entering a new era of accelerated growth and global relevance as it emerges as the single-largest contributor to global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand expansion, even as the broader chemical industry faces overcapacity and trade re-alignments.

14-Apr-2025

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s vinyl industry is entering a new era of accelerated growth and global relevance as it emerges as the single-largest contributor to global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand expansion, even as the broader chemical industry faces overcapacity and trade re-alignments. India leads global PVC demand growth through 2030 Rising imports, Chinese dominance raise trade and dumping concerns Domestic capacity, infrastructure push support long-term market expansion At the Vinyl India 2025 conference held in Mumbai, senior executives and market watchers outlined India’s evolving role in global petrochemical dynamics, particularly as its PVC consumption is projected to double by 2030, fueled by urbanization, infrastructure programs, and a burgeoning middle class. The south Asian country is set to become the world’s second-largest economy by 2050 based on analysts’ projections. Its economic rise is bringing the PVC industry into sharper focus as a key enabler of infrastructure transformation. “PVC is no longer just a material; it’s an infrastructure backbone,” said Unmesh Nayak, polymer chain president at Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd. From pipes, cables, and fittings to flooring and films, vinyl products are essential to India’s economic growth. STRUCTURAL SHIFT IN GLOBAL CHLOR-ALKALI MARKETS While India’s PVC demand outlook remains bullish, global chlor-alkali players are navigating complex shifts in supply-demand dynamics. A senior industry executive noted that caustic soda demand remains resilient due to its wide industrial use, while chlorine – which is primarily linked to PVC production – faces higher volatility and weaker margins. Following price spikes for caustic soda, chlorine and PVC in 2021–2022, new investments – particularly in Asia – have triggered capacity overbuild, with a long market expected through to 2029. This imbalance is expected to benefit PVC buyers but continue to strain global margins. Meanwhile, India’s energy imports, logistics costs, and new tariff structures are altering traditional trade flows. US Gulf Coast vinyl exports face mounting challenges, even as India steps up to absorb rising global supply. PVC TRADE FLOWS REBALANCE AMID GLOBAL GLUT According to market experts, the global PVC market is set to grow by 16 million tonnes by 2034, a near one-third increase from 2024 levels. However, the center of gravity is shifting. While China remains the largest demand driver, its role in capacity additions is waning. India, southeast Asia, and the Middle East are rising as new hubs. India is expected to post the highest compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in PVC demand globally, backed by growth in construction, water management, and mobility. However, trade imbalances are creating new risks. Chinese producers are increasingly exporting PVC in the form of finished goods – films, rods, sticks – nearly doubling exports to India since 2019. Today, 95% of India’s PVC product imports come from China, raising concerns over the health of the domestic downstream industry. “China is exporting its overcapacity through products, not resin,” noted the industry analyst. “This is easing domestic supply pressures in China but creating dependency risks for India.” INDIA STRUCTURAL DEMAND OUTLOOK REMAINS ROBUST Despite global headwinds, India’s structural story remains intact. Tricon Energy president & CEO Ignacio Torras outlined how China’s chemical capacity has outpaced demand, with nearly 20% of its PVC capacity idle due to a real estate slowdown. In stark contrast, India’s PVC consumption is on a steep upward curve. “India has electrified every corner, internet access has reached 70% of the population, and 150 million more people will join the middle class within five years,” he said. “These trends will directly translate to PVC demand.” India’s per capita PVC use is expected to rise from 2.6 to 5.0 kilogram (kg) by 2030, still well below China’s 16 kg – indicating significant headroom for growth. Even amid margin pressure, as tracked by Tricon’s internal index, the executive maintained that India offers scale, resilience, and long-term opportunity. GROWTH BUT NOT WITHOUT CHALLENGES While the outlook is positive, challenges loom. Stakeholders repeatedly highlighted the need for: Tariff safeguards to prevent dumping of cheap PVC and derivatives Investment in downstream manufacturing to reduce reliance on finished product imports Policy and institutional reforms to support rapid infrastructure rollout Circularity and ESG (environment, social, governance) compliance, as sustainability becomes central to investment decisions The National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) and other public sector initiatives are playing a catalytic role, but speakers emphasized that regulatory consistency and private-public coordination will be key to unlocking India’s full vinyl potential. As the global industry braces for a prolonged phase of overcapacity and price volatility, India offers a unique growth engine – one that could reshape demand dynamics in both resin and downstream vinyl markets. Insight article by Aswin Kondapally Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

11-Apr-2025

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s vinyl industry leaders voiced optimism about long-term demand growth while raising caution over rising imports and the need for a stable regulatory framework at the 12th Vinyl India Summit held in Mumbai on April 10-11, 2025. The conference brought together domestic producers, global suppliers, and policymakers to chart the future course of one of the fastest-growing vinyl markets in the world. India’s per capita polyvinyl chloride (PVC) consumption remains significantly below global averages, but growth momentum is building rapidly, said Vivek Jain, managing director of DCW Ltd., in his keynote address. Jain projected PVC demand to reach 7 million tonnes by FY2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7%, underpinned by robust infrastructure expansion and broadening end-use applications. “PVC and CPVC are finding increased traction in plumbing, fire safety, and commercial construction,” Jain noted, adding that India’s policy environment must continue to support domestic manufacturing to sustain this trajectory. IMPORT SURGE RAISES TRADE CONCERNS While demand prospects are upbeat, rising imports remain a pressing concern for Indian producers. India imported 1.9 million tonnes of PVC in financial year (FY) 2022-23 (April to March), a figure that is expected to surge to 3 million tonnes by FY25, with China accounting for 43% of the inflows, Jain said. Ongoing global tariff disputes and surplus capacities in major exporting countries could make India vulnerable to dumping, he warned, strengthening the case for a re-evaluation of anti-dumping duties (ADDs). “Without adequate trade safeguards, India risks becoming a dumping ground,” he said. “Strategic and timely regulatory action is vital.” GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS DRIVING DOMESTIC DEMANDEchoing the bullish sentiment, Anil Jain, vice chairman and CEO of Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd., pointed to major infrastructure initiatives as the cornerstone of future demand. “With the Jal Jeevan Mission, river-linking projects, and aggressive rural irrigation programs, we are seeing a once-in-a-generation opportunity for PVC applications in water management,” Jain said. He highlighted that India aims to bring 10–20 million hectares of farmland under irrigation, a move that will significantly boost rural infrastructure and drive multi-decade demand for PVC. Jain also emphasized the expansion of chlorinated PVC (CPVC) beyond premium housing into affordable housing, powered by government plans to build 100 million new homes. MARKET OPTIMISM ROOTED IN DOMESTIC RESILIENCEDespite global economic volatility, both executives underscored India’s internal strength as a consumption-driven economy. “India’s growth story is being written at home. Domestic demand is strong, and if PVC price stays around $700/tonne, we’ll remain the fastest-growing market globally,” Anil Jain stated. New resin capacities coming online by 2026–27, combined with a policy environment that encourages investment, are expected to propel India’s PVC sector through what Jain described as a “rocking five years” ahead. The conference also emphasized the importance of ESG compliance, green material innovation, and the circular economy as integral to sustainable growth. “Growth and environmental responsibility must go hand in hand,” Vivek Jain concluded, urging stakeholders to collaborate on a long-term roadmap to 2030. Focus article by Aswin Kondapally

11-Apr-2025

NEW YORK (ICIS)–2 April 2025 – dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ by US President Trump – saw a sweeping and substantial salvo of reciprocal tariffs, with a baseline tariff set at 10% but for many countries, much higher customized levels. The higher reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on 9 April, with the baseline 10% tariff imposed on 5 April. However, as of 8 April, there is emerging optimism on the potential for trade deals following comments from US President Trump that South Korea and China want to make a deal, and from administration officials that the US is in discussions with a number of countries. The reciprocal tariff levels – which include 34% on China, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 32% on Taiwan, 26% on India, 25% on South Korea and 24% on Japan – were very much higher than anticipated. For China, 34% in reciprocal tariffs to come into effect on 9 April would be on top of the previous 20% tariffs the US implemented in February (10%) and March (10%), catapulting additional US tariffs on China this year to 54%. Products that fall under US sectoral tariffs, such as 25% on autos and auto parts, in effect since 5 April, will be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. Products flagged for upcoming sectoral tariffs – pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and copper – will also be exempt from reciprocal tariffs. For Canada and Mexico, the US 25% tariff will remain in place, but only for non-USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) compliant imports. DIRECT IMPACT ON US CHEMICAL MARKETSTariffs will undoubtedly raise costs for the US chemical industry and its customers, in the form of logistics, feedstocks and components such as additives and catalysts. For certain product chains where the US is self-sufficient, the direct impact should be somewhat limited. For example, Canada is the dominant exporter of chemicals and plastics to the US, but these are primarily in the olefins chain – polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), propylene and ethylene glycol (EG) – where the US is more than self-sufficient and a big net exporter. These should also be USMCA compliant and thus exempt from tariffs. Even if there was a disruption, US producers in the US Gulf Coast could ship more volumes of ethylene and propylene derivatives domestically, replacing imports from Canada – although at higher logistics costs to some locations. The aromatics chain is more complicated. The US is a large net importer of benzene, toluene, xylenes and paraxylene (PX) – the bulk of which comes from South Korea, which is being hit with a 25% reciprocal tariff. The EU also exports aromatics to the US and will be subject to a 20% tariff. The US is a major importer of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) with China and the EU as major suppliers. With 20% in additional tariffs imposed on all China exports in two stages – February (10%) and March (10%) – on top of the existing 25% tariff on China MDI, the US tariff on MDI from China is 45%. Adding the 34% reciprocal tariff brings this to a whopping 79% tariff level by 9 April. US EXPORTS IN CROSSHAIRS FOR RETALIATIONThe bigger risk to the US is for chemical and plastics exports. The US runs a chemical trade surplus of over $30 billion, according to the American Chemistry Council. Already China has announced a 34% tariff on all US imports to go into effect 10 April, while the EU prepares €18 billion in tariffs that would go into effect 15 April. The latter, which is in retaliation for US steel and aluminium tariffs, includes US PE and other polymers and chemicals. Even as the US is a much larger goods importer than exporter, particularly with China, it is the reverse for the US chemical industry, which will bear the brunt of the impact. “US goods exports to China in 2024 were $143.55 billion. The US imports far more – $462.64 billion – but this will have an impact on the US chemical industry as we compete against producers in the Middle East and elsewhere in Asia,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. “This is the first large retaliatory challenge. Let’s hope it doesn’t devolve into a swirling beggar-thy-neighbor trade war,” he added. The new China 34% tariff on imports from the US could result in a $34 billion falloff in US exports of all goods to the nation – about a 24% decline, according to an analysis by Swift. Since 2018, the year that the first US-China trade war kicked off by the first Trump administration, US commodity chemical net exports have surged 88% to 2024, and are thus far more exposed to retaliatory tariffs than ever before. During this period, US exports of commodity chemicals and polymers to the world have increased 28% while imports declined 5%, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Top US chemical and polymers exports are linear low density PE (LLDPE), high density PE (HDPE), EG, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), caustic soda, methanol, low density PE (LDPE), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), polypropylene (PP) and styrene. If China puts an additional 34% import tariff on US PE, the economics for exports do not work, even with the substantial US cost advantage. “With a 34% tariff on top of the current 6.5% tariff, US PE margins go negative at current production costs. US PE demand has been weak so far this year, particularly exports, down 8.1% year on year,” said Harrison Jacoby, director of PE at ICIS. “We see rebalancing of trade – less US PE into China, more to Europe. The industry already saw the start of this trend in 2024, with more US PE shifting from China to Europe. Now we need to see how Europe reacts on 13 April with its proposed retaliation targeting US PE, if they will increase their current 6.5% duty,” he added. In retaliation for US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports that took effect on 12 March, the EU plans a new round of tariffs on around €18 billion of imports from the US, which includes high density PE (HDPE), linear low density PE (LLDPE) and low density PE (LDPE) along with a range of plastics and rubber products. This would be implemented in mid-April following a consultation period. The US is also a major exporter of PE to Europe. Total US PE exports to China and Europe were 32% of total US PE exports in 2024, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. “The big picture is there are two low-cost PE regions that are the only net exporters – the US and Canada and the Middle East. These regions will continue to fill global production shortfalls, optimizing to mitigate the impact of tariffs,” said Jacoby. However, demand growth is likely to fall as a trade war will only further weaken demand for all goods and services, he added. Retaliatory tariffs on key US chemical exports could also have ripple effects throughout the chain. For example, retaliatory tariffs on US PE could lower cracker operating rates, in turn reducing crude C4 (CC4) feedstock coming out of those crackers for butadiene (BD) production. “I am concerned about impacts on our suppliers and customers. If there’s an impact on the ethylene industry which causes rate reductions because exports [of derivatives such as PE] get tougher, that would have an indirect effect on our supply of CC4s,” said Ed Dineen, CEO of BD producer TPC Group, in an interview with ICIS at the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). HIT TO KEY END MARKETSKey chemical end markets such as housing, automotive and durable goods will be burdened with higher costs with these reciprocal tariffs. Demand in these sectors has already been struggling for more than two years. “The economic law of demand holds that as prices of a good rise, demand for the good will fall,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. US sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium, in effect since March, will add nearly $1,500 to the cost of a light vehicle and result in lower sales for the automotive industry, he estimated. This would push down sales by about 525,000 units if the cost is fully pushed through, said Swift. In addition, 25% sectoral tariffs on autos and auto parts will put further upward pressure on pricing, in turn lowering demand further. The ultimate price impact, and not just for automotive, will also depend on consumer demand. It is likely the higher costs from tariffs will be shared by producers, suppliers and consumers. Housing costs are also poised to rise, with sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum, and signaled tariffs on lumber and copper, along with reciprocal tariffs that will cover other imported goods such as vinyl floors, furniture, carpets and appliances. Consumer confidence is unlikely to improve anytime soon. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading in March for future expectations plunged 9.6 points, to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March as consumers were concerned about high prices and the impact of tariffs. One silver lining is that other countries may lower their tariffs and trade barriers in response to US reciprocal tariffs, opening markets for US exports and in turn leading to the US lowering its reciprocal tariff levels. WALL STREET CUTS EARNINGS ESTIMATESIn the meantime, Wall Street is making sizeable cuts to US chemical company profit forecasts, with tariffs expected to squeeze margins in the form of higher costs as well as lower demand. “Uncertainty over tariffs has weakened US PE/PP trading volumes and we expect shifts in trade flows to create near-term negative supply chain/production impacts, which could be negative for Q1,” said UBS analyst Joshua Spector in a 7 April research note. “We are lowering estimates and price targets to better reflect a global [slowdown] that spills into 2026 and 2027,” said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander in a 7 April research note. “While we could easily be proven wrong by a couple of tweets (either escalating further or shifting from dramatic action to symbolism, bluff and rhetoric), we are adjusting our framework to reflect the current state of policy,” said Alexander. THE BIG PICTUREUltimately, US President Trump aims to engineer a “once in a hundred year pendulum shift” in the global economy and geopolitical order, said Rana Foroohar, global business columnist at the Financial Times, at the IPC hosted by the AFPM. “Tariffs are for real. Tariffs are here to stay…Trump sees the global economy as a giant gaming table, with the US consumer market as the biggest chip to put down. And he is going to use it in ways we haven’t seen in half a century, if not more,” said Foroohar. “This imbalance between Wall Street and Main Street – between the asset growth economy and the income-led economy – is really at the heart of what’s going on today…Cheaper is going away [and] place matters,” Foroohar added. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Infographics by Yashas Mudumbai Insight article by Joseph Chang and Yashas Mudumbai

08-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand is expected to strengthen in the short term, driven by agricultural sector demand and restocking. However, ample supply and policy uncertainties may weigh on market sentiment. Weak demand, high inventories pressure prices to multi-year lows Antidumping duty final findings delayed; uncertainty around implementation persists Oversupply concerns rise with new capacities, trade barriers in focus In this chemical podcast, ICIS market specialist Aswin Kondapally discusses recent market conditions along with the near-term outlook.

02-Apr-2025