By John Richardson LET’S PUT THIS in perspective. Yes, as the chart below indicates, China’s polypropylene (PP) demand growth in 2021 is in line to be disappointing relative to what I have long seen as over-bullish expectations. But, unlike in polyethylene (PE), year-on-year PP demand growth will still be positive. Over-bullish expectations are persisting into […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Growth Slows On Collapse In Shadow Bank Financing
By John Richardson YOU should print-off the above chart and stick it on your chemicals company boardroom wall. From fellow blogger Paul Hodges, it shows the collapse in credit issued via China’s shadow banking system. It is the shadow banking system that has driven China’s debt-t0-GDP ratio to as high as 650% – and could […]
Peak Oil? Yes, Absolutely – Peak Oil Demand
By John Richardson YOU should never bet against the capability of oil investors to turn the world completely upside down. A great example occurred on Wednesday of last week, as Arthur Berman argues in this excellent Oilprice.com article. He points out that Brent crude surged from $62 a barrel to $65 a barrel on 10 […]
Modi: Great Words, All The Best, But We Are Watching You
By John Richardson IT IS once again fantastic news that Narendra Modi has highlighted the need to improve sanitation in India, as he also did last month. During his National Day speech last week, India’s prime minister called on listeners to join him in a nationwide campaign to improve sanitation, noting that many women, lacking […]
China’s About Turn: The Seven Global Implications
By John Richardson HISTORIANS will end up concluding that falling emerging market currencies and stock markets – the prelude to what could be a full-blown crisis – is really about China and not about the US Federal Reserve. The Fed is just a sideshow to the main event of what is going to drive not […]
Analyse The Data And Listen To Li Keqiang
By John Richardson IT IS important to look at long-term trends in China rather than be misled by a few positive sets of data. This is not pessimism, just realism. Yesterday saw the release of very good August export data. Exports were up by 7.2% from year earlier, and were 5.1% higher than in July […]
Quick recovery forecast for South Korea
By Malini Hariharan Analysts are predicting a quick recovery for South Korean petrochemical companies after a dismal performance in the last quarter. Honam Petrochemical’s Q4 2011 sales were down 14.7% quarter on quarter at Won3,488 bn. Operating profit declined 59.8% to Won158.4bn. LG Chem’s sales dipped 4.8% at Won5,602bn while operating profit slipped 30% to […]
Weak margins hit earnings
By Malini Hariharan It is the results season and numbers posted so far confirm that the last quarter has been rough with depressed demand, weak product prices and firm feedstock costs affecting earnings. Siam Cement Group’s EBITDA for the chemicals division dropped 25% in Q4 from the previous quarter, while sales revenue declined by 5%. […]
Q2 setback for Korea
By Malini Hariharan The margin pain experienced in Asia in the last quarter is clearly evident in the recently released results by South Korean majors Honam Petrochemical and LG Chem. Honam’s operating profit for Q2 declined 36.8% from the previous quarter to Won36.1bn. LG Chem’s operating profit was down 7.2% at Won775.4bn while its petrochemical […]
HSBC: Speculation Adds $30 To Oil
By Malini Hariharan GROWTH in China and other leading economies has slowed and oil prices have slipped but analysts are predicting strong prices for the rest of 2011 and 2012. Their reasoning is based on continued speculative activity in this commodity and geopolitical risks in the Middle East . HSBC’s recent report on this subject estimates […]
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