By John Richardson HOW much longer will China’s central government continue to kick the can down the road? The answer to this question might well turn out to be the biggest single determinant of chemicals and polymers demand growth over the next few years. When the great rebalancing really kicks in, the wind could be […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Auto Demand Growth: No Longer As Predictable
By John Richardson WE used to live in a linear world where GDP growth was nearly always on the increase and there was a very close linkage between the growth in any overall economy and the rise in demand for chemicals and polymers. It’s all about throwing darts at a metaphorical dart board, of course. […]
Global Petchem Markets Turn Bearish
By John Richardson EXCESSIVE inventory building down all the major petrochemical value chains is a global rather than just a Chinese problem, according to Paul Satchell – the UK-based chemicals analyst with global investment bank Canaccord Genuity in his latest Volume Proxy research note. “The Volume Proxy continues to decline, with the index now in clear […]
Germany’s Long-term Economic Challenges
Source of graph: Eurostat By John Richardson AS delegates gather for this year’s European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting in Berlin, which takes place on 5-9 October, it might be tempting to believe that Europe has turned the corner. Supporting this argument has been the release of lots of positive economy data recently. For example, […]
Shanghai Free Trade Zone Underlines Risks Ahead
By John Richardson MUCH ballyhoo greeted last week’s launch of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone – an eleven-square-mile experiment in economic liberalisation on the outskirts of the city. Comparisons have been drawn with 33 years ago, when Deng Xiaoping set up the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone as an antidote to the poverty and economic […]
China And The New IPCC Report
By John Richardson THE blog isn’t a scientist and it has also often discussed the dangers of another consensus view: That the global economy will return to the Old Normal. Nevertheless, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has now said that there is a 95% chance that human activity is causing climate change, drawing […]
New Consensus Builds On Ethylene Supply Gap
By John Richardson THERE seems to be a new consensus emerging over an ethylene capacity addition shortage between 2013 and 2017. Many of the projects that are supposed to come on-stream during that period will either be delayed, or perhaps might even be cancelled, think a growing number of people. The future of some of […]
The FOMC Decision And Tackling Leprosy
Ben Bernanke Please note that before reading what follows: We do not want to be seen as belittling or ignoring the enormous efforts of those chemicals companies individuals, including those in India, who already contributing to long-term, sustainable growth. We recognise their tremendous contribution […]
The Hedgehog And The Fox
By John Richardson Are there more hedgehogs in the chemicals industry than foxes? This thought came to the blog after meetings with industry executives this week during its latest visit to Singapore. Bear with us and we will, we promise, as quickly as possible get to the point. The philosopher Isaiah Berlin, in his famous […]
Selling To The Base Of The Pyramid
By John Richardson As the slide above slows, some four billion of the world’s population earn very low incomes indeed. It would be tempting to give up trying to sell to these people, as, from a Western chemicals and polymers producers perspective, the effort might not seem worth the meagre returns. But as this fascinating […]
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