By John Richardson IS diversification itself a problem in commodity chemicals and speciality companies with operations under one roof, or is it more how this diversification is handled? This is a question raised by this excellent Insight article, from the blog’s ICIS colleague Joe Chang, which revisits the issue of hedge fund Third Point’s […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Gas, Gas, And Perhaps Even More Gas
By John Richardson THE global petrochemicals industry is stepping on the gas as it accelerates both capacity expansions and the restructuring of existing assets. Apologies for the pun. In the US, of course, some 25m tonnes/year of ethylene capacity is due to be added, most of it after 2017, thanks to big volumes of cheap […]
The Perils Of An Even Weaker Yen
By John Richardson YOU cannot turn 65-year-olds into 35-year-olds, no matter how much central bank stimulus you throw at the problem. This is why the real, underlying problem with Japan is its demographics which make all the current attempts to stimulate its way to stronger local growth pretty much futile. If there are not enough […]
Iran-West Nuclear Deal Could Boost Naphtha Cracking
By John Richardson THE blog has met many Iranian delegates during its seven years of working for ICIS Training and visited the country a couple of times during the early 2,000s. We love the people and the country, but not some of the politics on both sides. And so it was great news to hear […]
China PE Imports: A Long-Term Outlook
By John Richardson THE chart below is worth revisiting, and pondering again, as we attempt to assess the future of polyethylene (PE) exports to China. In the case of the Middle East, as the chart shows, it has been a case of “so far so good” in 2013. Overall PE import volumes from the […]
Asia Ex-China: The Outlook For 2014 And Beyond
By John Richardson IN a special series of blog posts over the next few weeks we will re-examine the outlook for the major Asian petrochemical producing countries, ex-China. The posts won’t necessarily appear every day, as important news events may require immediate analysis, but our aim is to finish the series by mid-October. Last month, […]
China Market Intelligence Still Contradicts PE Demand Rise
By John Richardson The debate continues as to exactly why polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (domestic production plus imports) in China rose by 13% in January-June of this year compared with the same period in 2011. Why the anxiety? Because most of the industry people that the blog speaks are still finding it difficult to match […]
China’s Reform Process Jeopardised
By John Richardson LAST week’s decision by China to give its banks the freedom to compete for borrowers, by removing the floor on lending rates, has been praised by most analysts. “This is one of the biggest steps they could have taken. It tells you something about the trajectory,” Mark Williams, chief economist at Capital […]
Japan Consolidation Continues
Source: Japan Petrochemical Industry Association By John Richardson JAPAN’S petrochemicals industry remains in consolidation mode, as my ICIS colleague Nigel Davis writes in this article. And, as the chart above shows, Japan’s ethylene output continues to fall. It was down 8% to 6.146 million tonnes in 2012 year-on-year. Future consolidation includes: *Mitsubishi Chemical’s planned closure of […]
Hallucinatory Effects
By John Richardson THE reasons cited for last week’s global sell-off in stock markets (see the above chart of the Nikkei up until Thursday last week) were concerns over volatility in the Japanesegovernment bond market and the economic slowdown in China. Some investors, however, believe that markets have just taken a pause for breath as a result of profit […]
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