By John Richardson HERE is a five-point guide to what will happen in China after the Lunar New Year is over (most of China will be only holiday from 18-24 February): The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) now seems almost certain to further reduce interest rates and the bank reserve requirement (RRR). If you recall […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Iron Ore and Petrochemicals Share The Same Delusions
By John Richardson BACK in January we wrote: “As China’s investment growth model is unwound – for economic as well as social reasons – iron ore prices [will] decline significantly, leading to the failure of the smaller mining companies and some of the service providers. This could happen just as a lot more iron-ore supply […]
China: How Conventional Wisdom Becomes Conventional Wisdom
By John Richardson HOW does conventional wisdom – i.e. the opinion of the majority – become conventional wisdom? This is a subject that the blog pondered over the last few days as it wandered around Euro Disney. Unfortunately, Mickey, Donald and his pals weren’t able to give us an answer. The reason why we dwelled […]
China Polyethylene Demand Up By 25%
By John Richardson WHEN something appears to be good to be true, it usually is. Back in 2009, China’s demand for polyethylene (PE) increased by more than 20% – way above the increase in GDP – because of just about the biggest injection of credit into an economy in history, as our top chart illustrates. […]
China Reconsiders Petchems Targets
By John Richardson CHINA has long set targets for petrochemicals self-sufficiency in each of its five-year economic plans – and those targets have been pretty aggressive as the chart above, showing the recent rise in ethylene production, indicates. These have involved often-realised plans to raise independence from exports in a particular product to a specified […]
Why China’s Polyethylene Imports Have Surged
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) imports jumped by 26% in the first quarter of this year over the same period in 2013, according to data from Global Trade Information Services (see the above chart). This isn’t the result of a dip in domestic production that had to be made up by imports, as […]
The “Why” Behind Sinopec’s Investment Freeze
By John Richardson SINOPEC has announced that it will halt some of its new petrochemicals investments. This could involve the postponement of up to three cracker projects with a combined ethylene capacity of 2.8m tonnes/year, according to this excellent story from my ICIS colleague, Fanny Zhang. The company confirmed that the 1m tonnes/year Qingdao Petrochemical […]
China Turns A Corner On Shale Gas
By John Richardson CHINA has more shale gas reserves than the US, and, like the US six years ago, confronts a dangerous reliance on imported energy. But the development of the shale industry in China is being hampered by water shortages, poor intellectual property rights protection leading to lack of access to cutting edge US […]
China Jobs Versus The Cost Curve
By John Richardson ACHIEVING approval for any new petrochemicals projects in China is going to be a lot harder in the future, is a a growing view across the chemicals industry. A senior executive with a US-based polyolefins producer, for example, told the blog recently: “It looks as if Chinese chemicals companies are finding it […]
China: One “Blink” And We Are Back To Normal
By John Richardson Temporary factors might be behind the weakness in China’s polyethylene (PE) market that has been highlighted by our colleagues at ICIS pricing. Last week, pricing in China was either flat or declined on bearish sentiment (see the above chart). One temporary factor could be the traditional post-Lunar New Years shortage of workers […]
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