By John Richardson WOW, what an opportunity. That might be your reaction to the two above charts. On the left, you can see a quite breath taking rise in China’s paraxylene (PX) net imports (imports minus exports). In 2007, China’s net imports were around 2.6m tonnes of PX with last year’s total reaching 14.4m tonnes. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China plans to raise ethylene capacity by 113% in major self-sufficiency drive
By John Richardson IN SEPTEMBER last year, I had thought that China might raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% by as early as 2022 over its end-2017 level of 23.5m tonnes. Now, though, our updated data show the potential for a staggering 113% increase over the next four years, when you look […]
China’s Polyethylene Market: Three New Scenarios For 2018-2025
By John Richardson THE above slide underlines the growing complexity surrounding China’s economy, politics, society, environmental policies and trading relationship with the US. I’ve placed this complexity in the context of the implications for the polyethylene (PE) industry. The above slide, and the full explanation below, updates my three scenarios from last September. These new […]
China’s Polypropylene Market: The Right Questions You Simply Must Ask
By John Richardson On the surface, the above chart represents very good news for exporters of polypropylene (PP) to China. As you can see, our base case sees import volumes creeping up from around 3.9m tonnes in 2018 to 4.2m tonnes in 2025. But this chart should be merely a starting point for a much […]
China To Now Raise Ethylene Capacity By 84% As Self-Sufficiency Drive Accelerates
By John Richardson SINCE my last update on 18 September, our ICIS China team have discovered a further 2.4m tonnes/year of ethylene capacity being planned in China via the steam cracker process (see the updated table above, with the changes from September indicated in red). There will also of course be more propylene via steam […]
Three Scenarios For 2018-2025 China Polyethylene Demand Growth
By John Richardson CHINA leads the world in many aspects of renewable energy and has an electric vehicle industry that is receiving the kind of state support that is very probably making foreign competitors green with envy. The explosion of commerce via the mobile internet takes your breath away. Average per person spending on mobile […]
China To Raise Ethylene Capacity By 71% In Major Self-Sufficiency Drive
By John Richardson CHINA could raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% and its propylene capacity by at least 21%, according to my latest analysis of a major new wave of naphtha, ethane and LPG crackers. The above chart is an update of the chart I first published back in June. In detail: […]
China And Aramco IPO: Win, Wins From A Closer Relationship
By John Richardson NO SMOKE without fire? Perhaps, as there more and more reports that China will buy into next year’s Saudi Aramco IPO.. This would further cement already strong economic and geopolitical ties between China and Saudi Arabia. It was Reuters that first reported back in April that China was interested in buying into Aramco […]
Tackling China’s Latest Steel Bubble: Implications For Petrochemicals
Note: A technical fault meant I was unable to update the blog on Wednesday and Friday last week. Business as usual returns this week. By John Richardson THE stop, start nature of economic reforms in China, which is the result of the battle between the reforming “princeling” politicians and the “populists” who want to maintain the status […]
China Polyethylene: Increased Local Naphtha Supply Threaten Imports And Margins
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) demand grew from around 22m tonnes in 2914 to approximately 25m tonnes in 2016 – an increase of 12.16% based on the exact numbers, according to ICIS Consulting. Even better news for the global PE industry is that this strength in Chinese demand has occurred during a period when there have been […]