By John Richardson LAST year was a tremendous year for polyethylene (PE) exporters to China, according to data provided by US-based International Trader Publications, the US-based trade data and analytics service. They conclude that China’s imports of high-density polyethylene (HPDE) and low-density PE (LDPE) posted strong gains. Volumes for 2013 were up 18% and 10%, respectively, versus […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Researching China Credit And Growth
By John Richardson A lot of the focus in polyethylene (PE) markets at the moment is on supply and on what impact this might have on the key China market during 2014. Crunching this data will always remain a crucial part of assessing all petrochemicals markets, but, in China, do we need other tools as […]
China In 2014: Some Predictions
By John Richardson IT was a year to remember, for the right reasons, for anybody who bet on a recovery in Chinese polyethylene (PE) demand. Back in May, it was all doom and gloom. But since May, thanks to a surge in the availability of credit, apparent demand (local production plus imports) has bounced […]
Life After The “Sugar High”: Oil Prices And Petrochemicals
By John Richardson WHY is it that even though demand in the US for petrochemicals is still well below the 2007 peak, as indicated by the latest American Chemistry Council capacity utilisation chart, the November ICIS Petrochemical (IPEX) for the US shows pricing at such elevated levels? (see the charts below). “Never mind,” one might […]
China, The November Plenum And De-Stocking
By John Richardson THE end of China’s Golden Week holidays, which ran from 1-7 October, has represented an opportunity for some polyolefins traders. “Stocks were low before the holidays, and, as a result, once business activity resumed in earnest on 10 October, we have seen a considerable uptick in buying from the converters,” said one […]
Construction Drives China 2013 PE Growth
By John Richardson THE blog has been banging its head against a brick wall for several months now in an an effort to fully explain why polyethylene (PE) apparent demand growth has been so strong during most of 2013. Interviews with well over 20 producers, traders, end-users and market analysts (to be honest, we have […]
China PE Demand Increases Further
By John Richardson THE great polyethylene (PE) mystery hunt continues. As the chart above shows, China’s apparent PE demand (imports plus domestic production) grew by 14% in January-July 2013 compared with the same period in 2011, according to Global Trade Information Services and official government data. This compares with a 13% increase recorded for January-June […]
Water Shortages to Scupper China CTO Industry
By John Richardson THE debate about how exactly how much coal-to-olefins (CTO) capacity China will add has been largely around the economics of the process versus that of naphtha cracking. In terms of capital costs, building a CTO complex costs 1.5-2 times more than constructing a naphtha cracker, according to our colleagues at CBI […]
China’s “Mini-Stimulus” Package
By John Richardson The big question this morning for anybody concerned about China’s long-term economic future is whether its “mini-stimulus package” will do any good. Yesterday, Beijing announced that it would eliminate taxes on small businesses, reduce costs for exporters and line-up funds for the construction of railways. This followed Prime Minister Li Keqiang declaring […]
Zero And Declining Growth For China Imports
By John Richardson CHIINA’S ethylene equivalent imports will see zero growth over the next 5-7 years and the country’s propylene equivalent import requirement will decline over the same period, says a source with a major oil, gas and petrochemicals producer. This exceptionally bearish forecast is based on lower demand growth as China undergoes major economic […]
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