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Asian Chemical Connections

China Demand Worse Than Just Before CNY

By John Richardson CHINA’S demand for polyethylene (PE) is lower than immediately ahead of the February Chinese New Year (CNY) break, said a Singapore-based polyolefins trader. “For demand to be less than just before the New Year, when most traders had already pulled out of the market to avoid cargoes being stranded at ports during […]

China’s New Credit Clampdown

By John Richardson BEIJING is clearly getting worried that its politically motivated 2012 economic stimulus programme has damaged the economy. “Just when the world had bought into a Chinese economic recovery, along comes the government throwing proverbial spanners in the works,” writes James Gruber, former fund manager and journalist in his latest Asia Confidential weekly […]

HSBC: China 2013 Polyethylene Market Has Peaked

By John Richardson A NEW report from HSBC backs up our concerns that the post-Chinese New Year polyethylene (PE) will be weaker than in December-January. The bank is with us in thinking that the stronger markets over the last two months have been driven by: *Lagging indicators such as strong export and import data and […]

Filtering Out The Noise

By John Richardson ONE should be careful about reading too much into the above margins for February as, of course, there was very little trading activity because of Chinese New Year (CNY), whilst oil and therefore naphtha prices increased. But the poor performances in December and January in Southeast and Northeast Asia, despite the rally […]

China SMEs Under More Strain

Source of picture: Rex Features   By John Richardson WE are worried that the recovery in Asia’s chemicals and polymer markets may not be sustained. One of our biggest concerns is that China’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which make up 60% of the economy and are responsible for 80% of employment, are under more […]

China SMEs Under More Strain

Source of picture: Rex Features   By John Richardson WE are worried that the recovery in Asia’s chemicals and polymer markets may not be sustained. One of our biggest concerns is that China’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which make up 60% of the economy and are responsible for 80% of employment, are under more […]

China’s PE Cycle Repeats Itself

By John Richardson THE above chart shows that China’s polyethylene (PE) demand growth has been well below that of overall GDP for most of the years between 2006 and 2012. This supports the argument that economic growth has been too heavily focused on investment rather than consumption, given that the majority of PE goes into […]

Northeast Asian PE Margins Positive

By John Richardson THE latest Northeast Asian high-density polyethylene (HDPE) chart from ICIS (see above) hardly suggests a tremendous increase in profitability, despite the improvement in sales volumes and sentiment in China that we first highlighted in December, and provided more details on last week. At least the Northeast Asian producers have moved into slightly positive territory, though, […]

US Threat To Asian Polyolefins

So far so good…lack of arbitrage in 2012 By John Richardson Despite a strong recovery in China’s polyethylene (PE) prices and sales over the last month-and-a-half, producers are viewing the coming year with great trepidation. One of the wild cards is how the US producers behave in 2013, as we also discussed in November. Faced […]

China Polyolefins Recovery Continues…..

…..For Now    By John Richardson RELATIVE to most of 2012 – when China’s polyolefins market was in dire straits – November, December and early January have been excellent for traders who took the right positions. At least one producer has also reporting a strong recovery in sales. “I thought there would be a mini-rebound […]

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