By John Richardson ONE industry observer describes some of the cracker and refinery-petrochemicals projects in Southeast Asia (SEA) as “national projects”. In other words, their justification is not entirely on economics, but also about nation building and reducing import dependency. And so, as we discussed yesterday, perhaps some of these projects will be shelved when […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Crucial Six Months For China
By John Richardson CHINA’S immediate credit scare appeared to ease somewhat yesterday when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said that it would supply liquidity to support banks that have a healthy balance sheet and lend to promising projects if they see a temporary liquidity shortage. But room for interpretation was left open, as […]
China Stays Firm On Credit
By John Richardson CHINA signalled yesterday that there would be no major easing of the credit squeeze that is slowing the economy down. “At present, the overall liquidity in China’s banking system is at a reasonable level, but due to many changing factors in the financial markets and also because of the mid-year point, the […]
Consensus On China Shifts Even Further
By John Richardson ECONOMISTS, financial analysts and ratings agencies are increasingly lining up to say what we have believed since last November: China’s new leaders are so serious about economic reform that they are prepared to sacrifice short-term growth for the sake of rebalancing the economy. The barrage of further commentary over the weekend, supporting […]
Indonesia’s Challenges
By John Richardson INDONESIA was the subject of much enthusiasm when the blog hosted a webinar on Monday on China Polyolefins Markets. We will provide a link to a recorded version of the event shortly. The reason for the enthusiasm over Indonesia is perhaps because China, and now quite likely India, no longer guarantee strong growth. […]
A Delicate Balancing Act
XI Jinping (see picture), the country’s new president, is being described either as a nationalist, who has set China on an overly aggressive course or as someone who will skilfully and harmoniously guide the nation through major domestic and international reforms. According to Robert Lawrence Kuhn , an international investment banker and author, Xi’s nationalism, or […]
China PE Recovery Lacks Firm Foundation
By John Richardson DESPITE a slight pick-up in China’s polyethylene (PE) prices over the last two weeks (see above chart), producers and traders remain gloomy about the immediate outlook. “What has driven prices up is that new supply hasn’t hit the June market in volumes that people expected,” said a source with a global producer. […]
China’s Auto Sales Challenge
By John Richardson THE assumption behind big investments in auto capacity in China – and in butadiene, synthetic rubber, polypropylene (PP) and other chemicals and polymer capacities linked to the auto industry – is that, eventually, Western levels of car ownership will be achieved. But Hou Yankun, head of China Equity Research and head of […]
China’s SMEs Continue To Struggle
By John Richardson ONE of the reasons why China’s polyethylene (PE) demand growth has been below the increase in overall GDP for most of the years since 2006 has been the relatively weak performance of the country’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). As the state has advanced, the private sector has retreated because most of […]
In Search Of Smart Customers
By John Richardson JUST about every Asian cracker operator is losing money right now, according to a polyolefin industry source. And the above chart indicates that margins are wafer-thin in Northeast Asia because of the unexpected weakness in the China market, where polyethylene (PE) demand growth is forecast to either be flat or in negative […]
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