By John Richardson THE first ramification of the Turkey crisis is that the collapse of the lira raises questions over how Turkish importers will be able to afford the dollars to pay for some of the polyolefins imported since the crisis began. Then comes the issue of what happens to Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Peak Oil And The Aramco/SABIC Petchems Project
By John Richardson THERE is an important connection between this week’s announcement by Saudi Aramco and SABIC of an MoU for a direct oil-to-chemicals complex and the Tesla Semi electric truck, which is being trialled by DHL and other logistics companies. To fully understand this link, let’s first consider the wider context behind the Tesla truck […]
India’s Demonitisation: Measuring The Real Impact
By John Richardson FOR those interested in what demonitisation might mean for Indian polyethylene (PE) demand in the calendar years 2016 and 2017, the above two charts will be useful. The top chart shows our base case for Indian demand growth, and for operating rates, from our Supply & Demand database. This was drawn up before Narendra Modi’s […]
Stunning Agreement On HFCs Offers Huge Opportunities
By John Richardson THE DELHI bank manager’s priority was to make sure his son got through medical school. He obviously therefore didn’t have that much time or energy to worry about global warming before he bought a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)-fuelled air-conditioning unit. The aim was to instead make sure his son could stay awake and night […]
Emerging Markets: 67.7 More Years To Catch Up With US
By John Richardson IF I had a dollar in my pocket for every time I had read or heard the phrase “the rise of the middle classes in the emerging markets” in the context that this was a tremendous opportunity for the global economy, I would be pretty rich by now. And I would be […]
India: How The “Local For Local” Model Can Boost Growth
By John Richardson IT is just silly, the idea that India can become an export-based heavy manufacturing powerhouse to rival China. Here are four very good reasons why this cannot happen: China, despite its rising labour costs in its eastern provinces, has vast supply chain advantages and far superior infrastructure which keeps getting better and […]
The Developing World: Getting Your Strategy Right
By John Richardson IT IS just plain intellectually lazy, and, more importantly, very wrong indeed: You work for a petrochemicals company and have been asked by your boss to come up with a demand-growth estimate for the next ten years for the rest of the developing world, and so you look at what’s happened in […]
Creating Sustainable Chemicals Growth In 2015
By John Richardson AS just about everyone, including me, obsesses about the more than 40% collapse in oil prices and what it means for the chemicals industry, here is another statistic for you: 58,000 newborns die in India every year because they come into this dysfunctional world with bacterial infections resistant to antibiotics. The root […]
Modi’s Biggest Challenge: Tackling Poverty
By John Richardson Narendra Modi, as we discussed last week, faces a big job in unlocking the stalled infrastructure investment that is holding back India’s economic growth. Optimists, however, point to his success as chief minister of Gujarat, which he might repeat at a nationwide level if, as expected, he becomes Prime Minister. They […]
China Pulls Back From Funding Other Emerging Markets
By John Richardson IT important to be relentlessly realistic about the risks no confronting emerging markets in general, now that China is focusing much more on its own internal problems and needs. One of these risks – reduced funding of infrastructure and other projects in the emerging world by Chinese banks – was highlighted in this […]
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