By John Richardson THE great news is that China is moving towards a new, and potentially very effective, economic growth model. Can we say the same for India? The reason why I pose this question is because, since Narendra Modi has been elected as Prime Minister, a lot of my Indian contacts have talked about […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Pollution: The Years Of Living Differently
By John Richardson “THE mountains are high and the emperor is far away,” is a well-known phrase in China, which has been applied to many areas of legal enforcement. “The refinery in, say, Shanxi province might have installed a de-sulphurisation unit, or at least something that looked like such a unit,” an “old China hand”, […]
China’s Silver Lining: Blue Collar Wage Increases
By John Richardson HOW useful a tool is GDP in measuring petrochemicals demand growth in China? This is a question that every research department in every petrochemicals company needs to ask itself. During the Supercycle era, Chinese demand growth was pretty much a proxy for strong consumption growth in the West. Because of ample availability […]
Jokes Don’t Keep You Healthy
By John Richardson “I FEEL like I’m living in clouds of smog,” Zheng Qiaoyun, a Shanghai resident who kept her 6-month-old son at home told the UK’s Guardian newspaper. “I have a headache, I’m coughing, and it’s hard to breathe on my way to my office.” The reason was another pollution scare in China, this […]
China’s Debt Crisis Comes To A Head
By John Richardson HOW much longer will China’s central government continue to kick the can down the road? The answer to this question might well turn out to be the biggest single determinant of chemicals and polymers demand growth over the next few years. When the great rebalancing really kicks in, the wind could be […]
China And The New IPCC Report
By John Richardson THE blog isn’t a scientist and it has also often discussed the dangers of another consensus view: That the global economy will return to the Old Normal. Nevertheless, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has now said that there is a 95% chance that human activity is causing climate change, drawing […]
China: Realism Is Not The Same As Pessimism
By John Richardson A CRUCIAL meeting takes place in China in November – the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee. More commonly referred to as “the November plenum”, the outcomes of the meeting will help determine the economic success or failure of China over the long term. President Xi […]
A Delicate Balancing Act
XI Jinping (see picture), the country’s new president, is being described either as a nationalist, who has set China on an overly aggressive course or as someone who will skilfully and harmoniously guide the nation through major domestic and international reforms. According to Robert Lawrence Kuhn , an international investment banker and author, Xi’s nationalism, or […]
Sinopec And The Blog’s Favourite Triangle
By John Richardson ONE of Sinopec’s subsidiaries, Shanghai Petrochemical, has weighed-in to the debate over US shale gas by warning that cheap petrochemicals imports from the States could erode the whole of China’s competitiveness. “We can’t tell how severe the blow will be, but it will pose a serious challenge, and the entire industry will […]
When Lower Growth Is Good News
Beijing Life on the left, with lower growth, or life on the right with a higher GDP number. What would you choose? Source of picture: Wikimedia By John Richardson WHEN is lower growth good news? Monday ‘s announcement that China grew by a relatively modest 7.7% in Q1 is one example. As the FT’s The […]
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