PRESIDENT TRUMP said yesterday that his discussions with President Xi Jinping were “moving along nicely” following a “very good” telephone call ahead of their critical G20 meeting at the end of November. But on the same day that the US president made his comment, the US Justice Department issued indictments against Chinese and Taiwanese semiconductor companies over […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US styrene another petchems sector at risk from trade war
By John Richardson THE US decision to pick a fight with China over trade and geopolitical influence could backfire very badly from the perspective of new US investments in petrochemicals capacity – most notably polyethylene (PE) and ethylene glycols (EG). The data tell is that many billions of dollars of investments in new plants will […]
US ethylene glycols: The Cost Of Exclusion From China
By John Richardson IF THE US were unable to export ethylene glycols (EG) to China the economic logic of US capacity expansions would face major challenges. Between 2018 and 2025, China will account for no less than 84% of global net imports (imports minus exports) amongst the major importing regions and countries. (For those who […]
US Import Tariff Decision: Impact On Polyethylene And The Global Economy
By John Richardson THE PROSPECT of a US-China trade war has edged closer as a result of President Trump’s announcement yesterday that the US will impose 25% import tariffs on steel and 10% import tariffs on aluminium. Countries hit hard by the tariffs will include China and Canada. We luckily avoided a trade war in […]
Climate Change, Extreme Weather: Implications For Chemicals Companies
By John Richardson The greater frequency of extreme weather events presents a huge challenge for chemicals companies. Take Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma as the most obvious current examples. Weather forecasting service AccuWeather writes in this article: This is the first time in the history of record keeping that two Category 4 or higher hurricanes, […]
US Polyethylene Industry: Scenarios For 2017-2020
By John Richardson IT has been a remarkably strong few years for the US polyethylene (PE) business. The shale gas revolution has sent ethane costs plummeting, resulting in the kind of margins that you can see in the above chart. Lower oil prices have made naphtha cracking a lot more competitive of late, but the […]
Global Deflation At Risk Of Returning On End Of China Commodities Bubble
By John Richardson THIS time last year it was deflation that seemed to be the problem for the global economy. Despite many years of US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) etc. economic stimulus, consumer and producer prices had stubbornly refused to respond in the way that most of the […]
Southeast Asia: Confronting The Real Downside Potential
By John Richardson SOUTHEAST ASIA’S (SEA) economies can be divided into two main categories. These are the heavily export-exposed economies of Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore and the two countries with the biggest internal demand drivers – Indonesia and the Philippines. Next come the smaller emerging SEA economies with tremendous longer-term potential, such as Myanmar […]
Ageing Populations Threaten A Repeat Of The 1930s
By John Richardson THIS is an era of the populist strongman, and also a woman if Marine Le Pen wins this year’s French presidential election. We have been here before, of course, many times in history, most notably in the 1930s where rising discontent over the failure of mainstream politicians to meet the needs of their […]
The Hypnotic Allure Of Emerging Markets
By John Richardson A GLEAMING new skyscraper in downturn Beijing, Bangkok, Mumbai, Jakarta or Kuala Lumpur made for fantastic TV viewing, especially if a photogenic reporter was standing in front of such a building. The reporter would then talk about “Asia’s rising middle classes” as the camera panned-out to people queueing outside Louis Viton and Cartier […]
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