Comparative PE and PP pricing data between Vietnam and southeast asia – and the “spreads” numbers between China PE and PP prices and naphtha costs – suggest the China economy has yet to recover.
Asian Chemical Connections
China naphtha-to-polyolefins spreads data still show recovery yet to happen
RECOVERY? WHAT RECOVERY? Some market players are talking about a rebound in the Chinese economy, and, therefore, polyolefins demand, but the critically important spreads data continue to tell a different story. Nothing has changed from last week.
More data show how far we still have to go to solve the climate and plastic waste crises
By John Richardson SEE THE END section of this blog post for a dystopian version of our environmental future. In a follow-up post – which I will publish on Thursday, 1 July – I will offer some suggestions about how we can avoid an outcome that nobody of course wants. Both posts are meant to […]
Petrochemical feedstock purchasing managers: What to think about and what do next
By John Richardson ALL THE old assumptions about how oil, feedstock and petrochemicals markets work need to quite literally be thrown out of the window. No old model or way of thinking will work anymore until the crisis is over. The permanent changes that will take place in markets, and there will be many, is […]
As trade talks resume make sure your expectations are very low
By John Richardson DON’T BUILD your mind up over this week’s US/China trade talk as major breakthroughs seem very unlikely. One reason is that we have in effect entered the next presidential election season even though the primaries don’t begin until early next year. President Trump has nothing to gain and everything to lose on […]
Oil at $58-69 over next year as focus switches to demand
Guest blogger today is again Ajay Parmar in the second his posts. He is a chemical engineering professional with 5 years of industrial experience in oil refining, primarily in a process engineering capacity.He joined ICIS in 2018 as a Senior Analyst and currently works on developing a price forecasting model for crude oil and refined […]
Major crude downside and upside risks for petchems
By John Richardson ONE of the biggest risks for petrochemicals producers has once again become oil prices as we enter a period of weaker demand and longer supply versus the potential for a major geopolitical disruption to supply. Crude prices could easily rise to more than $100/bbl on a geopolitical clash between the US and […]
Asian Petchems Profits Could Test Historic Lows In 2018
By John Richardson THE ASIAN steam cracker business has struggled to pass on higher oil prices as the above chart further underlines. As you can see, high-density polyethylene (LLDPE) injection grade spreads including selected co-products have slipped over the last few months. Spreads are a rough but still useful measure of profitability, and so tell […]
Petrochemicals Destocking Phase Likely As Crude Volatility Increases
By John Richardson WE COULD now be in a destocking phase in petrochemicals markets as oil prices are falling on a surge in US production. This would obviously mean lower petrochemicals pricing, leaving companies that have overbuilt raw material inventories with substantial financial losses. I hope that most companies have been prudent. In January, the […]
Petchems Face Major Inventory Risk As Economic Confidence Builds
By John Richardson NOBODY knows how many tonnes of un-cracked naphtha are sitting in steam cracker storage tanks around the world compared with H1 of last year. Or how much plastic resin and rolls of plastic film are being held in storage by converters. Or how many car dashboards are in the warehouses of auto […]