By John Richardson CHEMICALS markets are a great barometer for weather conditions in the wider economy because they are upstream of so many manufacturing industries. We should therefore take close notice of the above chart, from this excellent article by my ICIS colleague, Yvonne Shi. What the chart shows is that by mid-March, weekly inventory […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s vital internet economy cannot be sacrificed for trade deal
By John Richardson THE latest stumbling block for the US/China trade talks is the Chinese reluctance to open up its market to foreign cloud computing companies, curb requirements for companies to store data locally and loosen restrictions on the transfer of data overseas. Many people’s first reaction will be that this is all about the […]
Growth in China second hand car market driven by ageing population
By John Richardson CHINA will become a country of a billion plus Western-style middle class consumers is what many people have been telling us for many years. Its unstoppable economic rise involves hundreds of millions more Chinese rising out of poverty as the economic boom moves steadily westwards into its poorer regions, is the popular […]
US LLDPE imports threaten to overwhelm European market
By John Richardson THE above chart may end up being an underestimate of the extent to which US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) gains further market share in Europe. But this chart is by itself bad enough. Here’s my logic behind the above chart. thanks to numbers from our our excellent ICIS Supply & Demand Database: […]
China’s ageing population could cost 240 million tonnes of polymers demand
By John Richardson THERE was nothing miraculous about the “Chinese economic miracle”. What instead happened was a lucky coincidence of economic reforms and lots and lots of babies. The reforms were led by Deng Xiaoping who in 1978 decided to open up the Chinese economy. But the opening up would not have delivered significant benefits […]
Surge in China lending could lead to global economic rebound, stronger chemicals demand
By John Richardson CHINA may have pressed the panic button again. If the extraordinary rise in January lending is sustained, this would represent the third time in recent history that China has opened the floodgates on new credit. A sustained upswing in lending would obviously result in stronger chemicals pricing, margins and demand. Further upward […]
Search for votes in 2020 US presidential battleground states may wreck trade deal
By John Richardson A GOOD WAY of deciding whether or not the likely US/China trade deal will hold is to take a close look at the demographics in 15 potential battleground states in the 2020 presidential election. As of 2016, just ahead of the last presidential poll, David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report estimated […]
US PE margins have further to fall on higher production, China weakness
By John Richardson THE WORST is over for the margin depletion that’s been experienced by US PE producers in Q4 2018 and likely in Q1 this year as well, I have heard it being argued. There are two problems with this view. Firstly, the worse can only be over if the Chinese economy bounces back. […]
China purified terephthalic net exports to reach 2.7m tonnes by 2025
By John Richardson LET’S START with the good news first. ICIS Data and Analytics had expected China’s demand for paraxylene (PX) to grow by in 2018 at 5.6% over 2017, but instead I estimate growth at 9.2%. This was awesome news for the world’s major PX producers as the reason for the strong growth was […]
China propylene: 6.7m tonne demand hole threatens to swallow-up new projects
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL opinion is that the global propylene market is moving from a balanced position to a balanced-to-tight position in 2018-2020. This will justify a significant wave of new investments is a common view. It is time to think again. We had expected Chinese propylene demand to grow by 6.9% in 2018 over […]