By John Richardson UNTIL ALL of us are adequately vaccinated none of us are sufficiently protected is a point I’ve been making since late last year. So, providing the developing world with the $66bn it needs to be adequately vaccinated – and we appear to be nowhere near raising that figure – would not be […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term divergence in global markets or something temporary. As discussed on Monday, when I examined linear low-density PE (LLDPE) market (and the same […]
China could either see net imports of 63m tonnes in 2021-2031 or net exports of 18m tonnes!
By John Richardson CONFUSED BY the above chart? Once again I certainly hope so, provided confusion is not followed by blind paralysing panic. The chart, showing three scenarios for China’s net polypropylene (PP) imports in 2021-2031, follows last week’s chart of 2021-2031 high-density polyethylene net imports. Confusion is valuable because we need to go back […]
China polypropylene demand growth continues to disappoint as new capacity uncertainties increase
By John Richardson CHINA’S POLYPROPYLENE (PP) demand will very likely still grow in 2021 despite what has been a disappointing year relative to expectations. My latest estimate is for consumption to grow by 3% over last year. This is based on China Customs net import data and our local production estimates for January-September 2021. As […]
The perils of Evergrande for China and world polyolefins demand
By John Richardson ON THE PLUS side of the H2 China polyolefins demand ledger are the Golden Week Holidays between 1-7 October and the Singles’ Day internet sales promotion event on 11 November. The second half of the year always includes China’s peak manufacturing season, which runs from August-September until October, when Chinese factories ramp […]
China PP arbitrage to the US goes through the roof despite surging freight costs
By John Richardson IT IS VERY HARD to see how we will get out of this container crisis anytime soon. The crisis looks set to last until at least the middle of next year. The crisis could get even worse because of our over-reliance on China to make most of the things we need for […]
Latest data show China could become PP net exporter by 2026 and net exporter of 3.7m tonnes in 2031
By John Richardson DO YOU WANT the good news or bad news first? This is of course a rhetorical question because I cannot hear what you are saying. I have therefore independently decided to give you the good news first: ICIS forecasts that only 33% of total global net imports of polypropylene (PP) will be […]
Asia and Middle East PP producers need to be more global because markets are more regional!
By John Richardson NORTHEAST ASIAN (NEA) polypropylene (PP) producers are finding it increasingly difficult to export cargoes outside their region because of ample supply elsewhere and buyers’ reluctance to accept long delivery times. Freight costs have also spiked over the recent weeks, but container freight costs still seem workable on some routes. But when you […]
China polyolefins demand in 2021 could be 6.5m tonnes lower than expected with imports a lot weaker
By John Richardson NOW we must be very careful here. Time and time again, Chinese polyolefins growth has defied the doom mongers. Just look at 2015 as a prime example, when, despite a mild economic downturn, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) consumption growth surprised on the upside, largely because of a surge in internet sales. […]
China PP demand improvement points to huge global dependence on just one country
By John Richardson AS I’VE BEEN arguing for the past ten years, the global petrochemicals industry is enormously, disproportionately, reliant on growth in and exports to just one country. No prizes, I am afraid, for identifying that country as China. My colleagues from our analytics and consulting team have calculated a remarkable summary of what […]
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