By John Richardson WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database: 2000-2001: Global polyethylene (PE) operating rates dipped to an average of 81% on the end […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Threat To US Polyethylene From President Trump’s Iran Decision
By John Richardson THE geopolitical and economic relationship between China and Iran was already very strong even before Donald Trump decertified the Iranian nuclear deal. Now, though, Iran and China could draw even closer. This could pose a major threat to the US polyethylene (PE) industry as it ramps-up capacity. Here, first of all, is […]
Rising Trade Tensions Could Threaten US Petchems Exports
By John Richardson THE Trump administration is holding out against a capital increase for the World Bank unless the bank reforms the way that it lends money to China, according to the FT. China is the World Bank’s biggest borrower. Scott Morris, a former US treasury official, views this as strategic, as it is enabling […]
China Continues Deleveraging With Reforms Set To Accelerate….
…global risks remain elevated and so beware of complacency By John Richardson THE conventional view is that China has stimulated its economy to perfection ahead of the important 19th National Party Congress which begins in Beijing on 18 October. The theory goes that President Xi Jinping has kept the lending spigot firmly open in order […]
How China Will Help South Asia Maximise Its Demographic Dividend….
….as the OBOR region, which includes South Asia, pushes towards complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency By John Richardson SOUTH ASIA (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) is seeing around 1m people join its workforce every month, with this potential demographic dividend set to last for the next two decades, according to the World Bank. That is […]
Three Scenarios For 2018-2025 China Polyethylene Demand Growth
By John Richardson CHINA leads the world in many aspects of renewable energy and has an electric vehicle industry that is receiving the kind of state support that is very probably making foreign competitors green with envy. The explosion of commerce via the mobile internet takes your breath away. Average per person spending on mobile […]
How China’s OBOR Will Re-Order Global Petchems Value Chains
By John Richardson EVERY petrochemicals company needs to understand the above map and its implications for global trade flows over the next 20 years. Failure to understand and respond to what this map is telling you would be a very costly error. Let’s start with understanding what One Belt, One Road actually means: The One […]
US Trade Agenda Threatens 49% Of US Polyethylene Exports
By John Richardson WHICH President Trump will end up setting the final direction of policy? Will it be the President Trump who spoke off-script at a campaign-style rally in Phoenix, Arizona, this week or the President who a day later addressed military veterans in Reno, Nevada, in much more measured tones? Or will the ultimate […]
US Trade Policy Has So Far Bought China More Time…
…..But any number of outcomes remain possible, which underlines the fact that we live in a world of elevated political risk. Chemicals companies must, as a result, build multiple scenarios for future economic growth and trade flows. By John Richardson TIME was a commodity that China didn’t think it had very much of as recently […]
China’s OBOR Creates “Win, Win” Demographic Solutions…
…and in the process, it could radically reshape global geopolitics, economic growth patterns and chemicals trade flows By John Richardson THE above map, from this excellent FT Beyondbricks blog post by Paul Hodges and Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga, illustrates why demographics always drive economic growth. If you don’t follow and understand demographics, you won’t understand economics. […]
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