The key issue for your Action Plan is to focus on demand. 3 key questions dominate: Will your customers survive the Tariff War? Will your suppliers survive the Tariff War? What can you do to help them survive?
Chemicals and the Economy
Oil prices fall out of their ‘triangle’ as Trump’s trade war risks global recession
The Energy Transition is well underway California can now run for weeks at a time on 100% renewables. But President Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policy is hoping to turn back the clock. Oil markets market volatility is therefore inevitable, and will add to the volatility he has created in the economy and financial markets.
President Trump’s trade war risks crashing the global economy
Clearly, the US is most at risk from all these changes. Its ‘soft power’ depends on its global reputation. And its ‘hard power’ depends on its global alliances. But President Reagan’s warning applies to all of us: “Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.”
Brent falls out of its triangle – for the third time
Oil markets are warning of rising economic and political risk. Prudent companies and investors will be preparing for difficult times ahead, whilst still hoping for the best.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” VIadimir Lenin
We are now back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins.
Trump launches trade war with US’s top 3 trade partners; says Europe & key business sectors are next
“The Dumbest Trade War in History. Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.” Wall Street Journal editorial
European voters rally to the centre as external threats increase
Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he became president
The stock market bubble starts to burst
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
Industry now needs to step up, if Net Zero is to be achieved
Net Zero is clearly the key issue of our time. With COP26 about to start, 3 key elements need to come together to ensure success. Political leaders have to agree to meet the Net Zero targets, and to provide $100bn/year to help poorer nations fund the changes needed. But nothing will happen on the ground […]
The blog’s 14th birthday – and the New Normal world it predicted has arrived
The blog has now been running for 14 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end of June 2007. And quite a lot has happened since then: There was the 2008 financial crisis, one of the blog’s early forecasting successes This led to the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New […]
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