WAS IT JUST an almightily big bubble that cannot now be re-inflated, even if Beijing follows through on its plans to inject $148bn in loans into the country’s troubled real -estate sector? Once confidence has gone, such an intangible thing, there is a risk it cannot be restored.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s LLDPE market: final review for 2021 and further outlook for this year
China’s LLDPE demand grew by just 1% last year, below market expectations, with further 2022 downward pressure likely on Common Prosperity and Zero COVID
With Common Prosperity set to dominate 2022, here is some essential history
By John Richardson THERE IS ONLY one slight problem with the argument that developing world demand is behind the boom in petrochemicals demand over the last 20 years: the data. Sorry to begin the year on a rather sarcastic note, but this is unfortunately a drum I feel I need to keep banging to support […]
China phenol self-sufficiency: another one could bite the dust
By John Richardson IT IS A FANTASTIC song from a great band. Another One Bites the Dust by Queen underlines the versatility of a band that could not be pinned down. They never stuck to a genre, but instead adhered with the strength of epoxy resin-based glues to excellent song writing and performing. When analysing […]
Here is your guide to Asian and Global HDPE markets in Q4 this year and in 2022
By John Richardson THE COMING COLLAPSE of China, as I’ve discussed is before, is like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil – perpetually 10 years away. But what seems evident to me is that over the next six to 18 months, as China transitions to what I believe will be a successful new and […]
China’s less commodity intensive future requires major petchem strategic rethink
By John Richardson THE THING about the collapse of China is that, like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil, it is always ten years away from happening. In other words, I don’t think it will happen. But as the journalist and author Richard McGregor said in this Dan Snow history podcast on this year’s […]
China pulls multiple policy levers to fix energy shortages but don’t forget secular fall in demand
By John Richardson Executive Summary CHINA’S POWER shortages could fixed by the end of this month or early November, I was told by a senior polyolefins industry source. Three other contacts concurred. My contacts could be wrong, of course. A coal trader quoted by Reuters said that the energy shortages could continue throughout the fourth […]
China petchem project cancellations on “common prosperity” may not mean higher imports
By John Richardson IT IS BEING suggested that China’s “common prosperity” policy pivot, the biggest event in the global economy since at least 2009, will lead to a slowdown in local petrochemicals capacity additions. Maybe. As we all know, our industry produces a lot of carbon emissions, and a key element of the policy pivot […]
China’s “two sessions” in 2021 could easily set the direction of global petchems for decades to come
By John Richardson DO YOU have a dedicated team studying the policy outcomes from this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) which began last Friday and finish on 11 March? (These annual meetings are commonly referred to as the “two sessions”. For reasons described below, […]
China’s time poor, cash rich will want less PP and not more
By John Richardson LAST month I gave you the downside of urbanisation in China and how this could result in 7m tonnes of lower polyethylene (PE) demand in 2030 than we assume in our base case. A very good contact of mine has however pointed out this fascinating article from the World Economic Forum on […]