By John Richardson EXCESSIVE inventory building down all the major petrochemical value chains is a global rather than just a Chinese problem, according to Paul Satchell – the UK-based chemicals analyst with global investment bank Canaccord Genuity in his latest Volume Proxy research note. “The Volume Proxy continues to decline, with the index now in clear […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China And The Need To Keep On Digging
Sources: ICIS Consulting, World Bank and China’s NBS By John Richardson POLYETHYLENE (PE) demand growth in China during 2007-2012 was essentially a story of: Firstly, excessive stimulus which compensated for the global financial crisis. And then from April 2011 up until the third quarter of 2012, a reduction in stimulus as the Chinese government […]
China PE Imports: A Long-Term Outlook
By John Richardson THE chart below is worth revisiting, and pondering again, as we attempt to assess the future of polyethylene (PE) exports to China. In the case of the Middle East, as the chart shows, it has been a case of “so far so good” in 2013. Overall PE import volumes from the […]
China’s September Trade Data Shows Real Direction
By John Richardson EVIDENCE that decoupling might be a myth has grown with the release of China’s September export data. Exports to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region fell 9.8% by value in September 2013 compared with the same month in 2012. Part of the explanation for the decline is the “over-invoicing” fiddle […]
China, The November Plenum And De-Stocking
By John Richardson THE end of China’s Golden Week holidays, which ran from 1-7 October, has represented an opportunity for some polyolefins traders. “Stocks were low before the holidays, and, as a result, once business activity resumed in earnest on 10 October, we have seen a considerable uptick in buying from the converters,” said one […]
Construction Drives China 2013 PE Growth
By John Richardson THE blog has been banging its head against a brick wall for several months now in an an effort to fully explain why polyethylene (PE) apparent demand growth has been so strong during most of 2013. Interviews with well over 20 producers, traders, end-users and market analysts (to be honest, we have […]
The Purified Terephthalic Acid Sweet Spot
By John Richardson WHEN is a recovery a sustainable recovery? This a key question for chemicals companies as they prepare their budgets for 2014. What has happened this year in both polyethylene (PE) and the polyester chain has surprised some people. China’s polyester demand was higher than expected in July and August, leading to a […]
China’s Polyester Industry And The New Big Picture
Source: ICIS supply and demand database By John Richardson THE polyester chain in China is a good example of the dangers of assuming that the big macroeconomic picture will remain more or less unchanged. Large amounts of purified terepththalic acid (PTA) (see the above chart) and polyester capacity seems to have been added in […]
New Consensus Builds On Ethylene Supply Gap
By John Richardson THERE seems to be a new consensus emerging over an ethylene capacity addition shortage between 2013 and 2017. Many of the projects that are supposed to come on-stream during that period will either be delayed, or perhaps might even be cancelled, think a growing number of people. The future of some of […]
Becoming A Chef In Indonesia
An Italian restaurant in Jakarta By John Richardson ELEVEN-year-old Nurafidah spends her mornings at school and her afternoons hunting for recyclable plastic, aluminium and glass in Jakarta’s giant rubbish dump – Bantar Gebang. She wants to grow up to be a chef. “She is not alone. Many children of the dump are sure they […]
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