By John Richardson DECLINES IN Chinese apparent demand for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) gathered pace in January-April 2021: January-April 2021 apparent demand for HDPE fell by 12% to to 5.5m tonnes versus the last four months of 2020. This compared with an 8% decline in Q1 2021 over Q4 2020. PP apparent consumption […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Demographics are reshaping petrochemicals trade flows, investment patterns and demand
By John Richardson TEN YEARS AGO, fellow blogger Paul Hodges and I first highlighted the leading role that changing demographics would play in reshaping petrochemicals supply and demand. We have been emphasising the importance of demographics ever since. Demographics have, of course, always been a critical shaper of economies throughout human history. But during […]
Inflation anxiety is misplaced as upward price pressures are only temporary
By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE are panicking about global inflation. But I believe that much of the upward pressures on producer and consumer prices are temporary as they are the result of supply chain disruptions which will eventually disappear. I also believe that demographics in the West and China represent long-term deflationary pressures that are […]
China will create petrochemicals deflation with the only question being how
By John Richardson THE FEEDBACK I have received on my series of posts about the potential for rapidly rising Chinese petrochemicals self-sufficiency has focused on the detail. “I don’t see China building that many new paraxylene (PX) plants because they are already long on gasoline, so they cannot keep adding refineries to supply the mixed […]
Petrochemical buyers, after a very difficult pandemic, can gain from China-driven deflation
By John Richardson BUYERS OF polypropylene (PP) and other polymers and petrochemicals have had an incredibly difficult pandemic. Firstly, the converters and brand owners expected doom and gloom last March. At the time it seemed logical to expect a cratering of demand as the global economy pretty much imploded. Just looking at forecasts for GDP, […]
Middle East and Asia petchems need reinvention because of rising China self-sufficiency
By John Richardson MIDDLE EAST, southeast Asian (SEA) and northeast Asia (NEA) ex-China petrochemicals producers need to transform themselves because of China’s rising self-sufficiency. In polypropylene, styrene monomer (SM), ethylene glycols, paraxylene and methanol, China has the potential to by itself reach complete self-sufficiency over the next two-to-five years from its position today of being […]
Global polyolefins for the rest of 2021: supply to lengthen as demand muddle continues
By John Richardson SOMEHOW, despite the still very serious container freight shortages that have limited imports, buying sentiment seems to have weakened in the European polyolefins market, according to my outstanding ICIS colleague, Linda Naylor. Our excellent ICIS Pricing team in Asia are also sensing a shift in the mood in southeast Asia (SEA) as […]
Petrochemicals demand and the pandemic: we continue to stumble around in the dark
By John Richardson THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN out there remains whether petrochemicals and polymers demand will be stronger, the same or weaker post-pandemic than during the pandemic in the developed markets plus China. We seem to be getting no closer to any answers. This matters from a hard-hearted dollars and cents perspective because the developed markets […]
China ethylene glycols and paraxylene: new 2021-2031 import scenarios as self-sufficiency threat increases
By John Richardson WHEN I WAS a boy in 1970s Britain, a new pair of shoes was an expensive proposition and so I had to make them last. Durable goods in general were costly relative to incomes, so many people rented televisions and had to save long and hard to buy new sofas. But then […]
China early data points to 42% fall in 2021 HDPE imports
By John Richardson China’s high-density polyethylene (HDPE) imports in 2021 look as if they might collapse versus last year, according to the early data for this year (see the above chart). The same could apply to polypropylene (PP) and styrene monomer (SM) imports, as I discussed earlier this week. The potential 40% decline in HDPE […]
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