By John Richardson IT IS dead simple, apparently. All you have to do is find alternative geographical markets to China as China moves towards petrochemicals self-sufficiency and everything will be fine. In my view there is just one slight problem with this commonly- expressed argument: The data. The data on every product show that China […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Iran and China new deal could hasten Belt & Road Initiative petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson ONCE AGAIN, please don’t say I didn’t tell you. A proposed new investment and security agreement between Iran and China is the kind of closer relationship I had expected back in September 2016 when I wrote: China’s demand for oil is forecast to grow from 6m bbl/day today to 13m bbl/day by […]
China could be in complete polypropylene self-sufficiency by 2022
By John Richardson SORRY to labour the point but this comes from a genuine concern for the readers of this blog, including many of our valued ICIS customers: the above chart, if you have been following the blog over the last six years, should come as no surprise. You may, as a result, already have […]
China’s long-term ambition for paraxylene self-sufficiency seems close to being realised
On Friday, I examined how China’s paraxylene (PX) net imports could fall to as little 8m tonnes in 2020 from last year’s 16m tonnes. This would have major negative implications for the big exporters to China such as South Korea, Japan and India. I believe this is the beginning of a long-term shift – the […]
Paraxylene demand collapses as higher China production threatens 6m tonne fall in imports
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you that a decline in stock markets would happen. The post-March rally in equities was never going to be sustainable because of the enormous size of the damage to the real economy. We may see rebounds, of course, as we did on Friday as extreme volatility is […]
Why Asia may win and the US lose in post-virus petchems investment world
As always, these are my personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson IT IS A polyethylene (PE) world turned upside down which, in my view, will remain upside down. With oil prices set to stay around $30/bbl over the long term, the US ethane advantage is in my opinion pretty […]
Coronavirus may have made China province-level petchems data even more important
By John Richardson WHEN THE coronavirus crisis first hit China most of the focus was of course on Hubei province – the epicentre of the outbreak. One of the immediate effects was the collapse of petrochemical, automobile, steel, food processing and textiles production – the province’s biggest industries. Wind the clock forward to last week […]
Post-coronavirus world: How China could end up in a stronger position
These are, always, my views only and not the views of ICIS Here is another of attempt at long-term crystal-ball gazing where I again try to imagine the petrochemicals landscape in the post-coronavirus 2025 world. My earlier post had looked at the rise of sustainability and affordability that could work in parallel with the emergence […]
China 2020 polyethylene demand 4.1m tonnes lower on single-use plastics ban and coronavirus
By John Richardson CHINA was supposed to be the one polyethylene (PE) market we could all depend on during a period of unprecedented oversupply. This is no longer the case. As I discussed last week, 2019 could well have been another stellar year for the country’s demand growth with consumption of PE at some 33.9m […]
China single-use plastic bans: Polyethylene imports 68m tonnes lower in 2020-2030
By John Richardson THE good news from a “business as usual” perspective is that China’s polyethylene (PE) demand might have exceeded our expectations in 2019 by some 800,000 tonnes. Preliminary discussions with my contacts point towards growth of 10% in 2019 over last year rather than our forecast of 7.8% as a result of continued […]