By John Richardson THE above chart may end up being an underestimate of the extent to which US linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) gains further market share in Europe. But this chart is by itself bad enough. Here’s my logic behind the above chart. thanks to numbers from our our excellent ICIS Supply & Demand Database: […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Risks for US petrochemicals once again rise as trade war takes another twist
By John Richardson JUST when nearly of all us (including me) thought that a trade deal was about to happen, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has thrown quite a large spanner in the works. “I can’t predict success at this point, but we’re working hard and we have made real progress,” he told a Senate […]
China polyethylene demand forecasting: Forget GDP, look downstream and focus on regions
By John Richardson THE TOP DOWN method of estimating polyethylene (PE) demand growth in China that uses multiples over GDP seems to have major weaknesses (and some of what follows may apply to other chemicals and polymers). The problem is with GDP itself. China’s actual and forecast official GDP growth numbers have long been understood […]
China’s dominant role in global PE demand just got even bigger
By John Richardson WE WERE already living in an incredibly lopsided PE world even before last year’s extraordinary rise in Chinese demand. Between 2009 and 2020 we had forecast that China would account for 25% of global PE consumption and 42% of global growth in demand. These percentages compared with just 16% of consumption and […]
US PE margins have further to fall on higher production, China weakness
By John Richardson THE WORST is over for the margin depletion that’s been experienced by US PE producers in Q4 2018 and likely in Q1 this year as well, I have heard it being argued. There are two problems with this view. Firstly, the worse can only be over if the Chinese economy bounces back. […]
China slowdown: Loss of 7m tonnes of global PP demand points to new investment model
By John Richardson CHINA’S influence on the world economy has grown to such an extent over the last decade that is now a bigger driver of growth than the US and the EU combined, says Eurizon SLJ Asset Management. The US impact on global GDP shrunk from just over 40% in 1989-1998 to half that […]
China autos and polypropylene: Growth has peaked and will decline
By John Richardson WHAT if the number of new vehicle sales in China reached a long term peak of 28.9m in 2017? What if the declines in sales that we saw in 2018 continue or that at the very best sales remain flat? “Let’s put this in perspective, though. Just look at how the market […]
China purified terephthalic net exports to reach 2.7m tonnes by 2025
By John Richardson LET’S START with the good news first. ICIS Data and Analytics had expected China’s demand for paraxylene (PX) to grow by in 2018 at 5.6% over 2017, but instead I estimate growth at 9.2%. This was awesome news for the world’s major PX producers as the reason for the strong growth was […]
China propylene: 6.7m tonne demand hole threatens to swallow-up new projects
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL opinion is that the global propylene market is moving from a balanced position to a balanced-to-tight position in 2018-2020. This will justify a significant wave of new investments is a common view. It is time to think again. We had expected Chinese propylene demand to grow by 6.9% in 2018 over […]
The polyethylene world is now even more hooked on China
By John Richardson CHINA’S NET PE imports look likely to have risen by an average of 20% in 2018 over the previous year across the three major grades. Apparent demand (net imports plus local production) looks as if it will be 12% higher. So much for excessive doom and gloom about the Chinese economy then? […]