By John Richardson CHINA MIGHT remain a major net importer of styrene by 2025, making it still the biggest importer of any country or region in the world. Alternatively, as you can see from the chart on the right, it could swing into a small net export position – or may even be exporting as […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China MEG spreads turn negative on 171% rise in US retail prices for Chinese clothing
By John Richardson THERE are a lot of theories out there about why the spreads between Chinese mono-ethylene glycols (MEG) prices and naphtha feedstock costs have fallen in April and May of this year (see the above chart). But as I shall explain in detail later on, the only explanations that entirely stand up are […]
China benzene spreads at ten-year low on misplaced trade deal hopes
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart shows that in April the average spread between CFR Japan naphtha feedstock costs and CFR Northeast Asia (NEA) benzene prices was just $19/tonne, its lowest level since January 2009 during the Global Economic Crisis. AS with Doctor Copper, benzene is a major raw materials building block for many manufacturing […]
Longer trade war: Impact in numbers on China polymers demand
By John Richardson WE MUST now start to quantify the impact on the petrochemicals industry of no end to the US/China trade war during 2019. Economists at Barclays estimate that a 25% US tariff on $200bn of exports could cut Chinese growth by half a percentage point over 12 months, and as much again if […]
Plastics pollution crisis: Impact on polyethylene margins in 2022-2027
By John Richardson ALMOST all countries late last week signed a UN deal to monitor the flow of hard-to-recycle plastics to poorer countries. The US was amongst the few countries which declined to sign the agreement. The deal is the result of the increase in contaminated plastic waste exports to Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam etc. […]
China PE demand boom will not stop further margin declines
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) market is being temporarily weighed down by overstocking which is the result of the big surge in March imports. Many of the arrivals in March were of material booked late last year when oil and so PE prices were falling, drawing traders and Chinese buyers into major commitments. This […]
China holds all the petchems demand aces as it digs in for longer trade war
By John Richardson THE STRENGTH of China’s position in the intensifying trade war is further underlined by the above chart. In everything from oil and gas through to petrochemicals and finished goods, China is the world’s biggest market. Minus off China from consumption and many other developing countries, and even entire regions, can sometimes almost […]
President Trump’s Tweets increase risk of no trade deal until 2021
By John Richardson THE PROSPECTS of a trade deal seem to have have faded into the distance as a result of Tweeted threats from President Trump that the US will raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200bn worth of Chinese imports, including several chemicals and plastics. The increase would happen on Friday, he said. […]
Pressure on US builds as PE exports to China tumble and EU considers tariffs
By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP insisted in early March that he was willing to walk away from a bad trade deal with China. But it now appears that the US is prepared to water down its demands in the interests of getting a deal done. The above chart helps to explain why. The first bar […]
No room for cynicism as China targets major plastic clean-up
By John Richardson THE CYNICS out there would have you believe that the global plastics rubbish crisis is a passing fad, something that will fade from public consciousness as another “trendy cause” captures the popular imagination. They also want you think that the concern over plastic rubbish is almost entirely a rich world luxury. When […]