There was an interesting discussion at our annual conference last week about the relevance of correlation statistics. The general view was that anything less than 90% wasn’t really worth bothering about, as the number of errors would be too great. Thus the blog was very amused to see Neil Irwin in the Washington Post writing […]
Chemicals and the Economy
EU, US caustic soda output slows as China’s exports rise
Chlorine and caustic soda are some of the most widely used chemicals. Thus their performance is always a valuable leading indicator for the wider chemical industry and the economy itself. So the chart above, based on Eurochlor data, is a worrying sign: Chlorine production is down by 1.9% in 2013, after a 2.9% fall in 2012 Caustic […]
China focuses on the need for jobs, as Western companies reshore production
Its all about jobs. That’s the clear message from this month’s critical Economic Plenum in China, confirming the blog’s analysis back in February 2012. Of course, there was a lot of detail about future reform plans, which will certainly help to move the country’s economy in the right direction. But in the short-term, the key […]
Iran talks offer hope on oil prices
Iran has been at the centre of all the major oil market price spikes in the past few decades: Today’s record prices on an annual basis are partly due to market fears over supply disruptions due to the Iran/Israel nuclear issue Fears over a nuclear showdown also led prices to jump to $150/bbl in July 2008, when the […]
Growth remains below SuperCycle trend, whilst debt is building
Whisper it quietly, so as not to disturb policymakers’ dreams. But the charts above from the Financial Times confirm, as if proof were needed, that their policies of the past 5 years haven’t worked. The charts compare trends in economic growth in the world’s two largest economies, the Eurozone and the USA. As the arrows indicate, both are […]
Scotland launches industrial biotech strategy
Development is clearly hotting up in the industrial biotech area. The key is the increasing demand by consumers for sustainable methods of production. As Antonello Ciotto, commercial director of Equipolymers, told our Conference in Brussels this week, the major brand owners are forcing the pace on this issue: Coca-Cola: “We are working to completely eliminate […]
Nobody realised the BabyBoom had happened till long after it finished
Milton Friedman received a Nobel Prize for economics in 1976, partly on the basis of his analysis that ‘inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon’. It sounds an appealing insight, but of course it is wrong. The reason is that it confuses cause and effect. The above chart presents a different view, highlighting the […]
Benzene markets suggest BabyBoomer growth will not reappear
Benzene has always been one of the blog’s favourite leading indicators for the global economy. The reason is simple, in that it has been around a long time, and is now used in a very wide range of industries. So it provides us with a broad-based picture of the global economy. The chart above highlights another important […]
Ethylene demand weak as eurozone flirts with recession and deflation
So this is as good as it gets in 2013. That seems to be the sad conclusion from analysis of Q3 operating rate (OR%) data for Europe’s crackers. Actual Q3 OR% inched up to 81%, which was slightly better than 2012’s 80% rate and 2009’s 79% rate. But its a very long way from the […]
Record $142m for Bacon work shows markets now in “melt-up stage”
The blog is actually a fan of the artist Francis Bacon, and it rather likes the above painting of his friend and fellow-artist Lucien Freud. But the reason for showing it is not to discuss the finer points of art criticism. It is instead simply to note that its sale by auction house Christies in New York last […]
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