Republicans are racing to finish the draft budget by Memorial Day at the end of the month. Bond investors can be forgiven for getting nervous about who is going to pay the bill for Trump’s tariff war and tax cuts.
Chemicals and the Economy
6 ‘Rules for Success’ as tariff wars and Europe’s Clean Industrial Deal begin
The Rules for doing business have to change. As NATO’s leader, Mark Rutte, has warned, Europe needs to “Raise defense spending or start learning Russian”
China’s property crash has already destroyed $18tn of household wealth – where next?
Living longer should be a great opportunity for all of us. Today’s problem is that policymakers around the world have refused to accept that demographics are destiny. All of us now have to face the challenge of unwinding the mess they have made.
China risks entering a debt trap as its housing bubble continues to deflate
Deflation means the real value of debt increases. This is the opposite of what happens with inflation, when its real value reduces. China’s ageing and falling population therefore risks entering a debt trap. More and more money will be needed to refinance existing debt, accelerating the slowdown in the wider economy.
Chemicals must respond to demographic destiny
Demographic changes are now transforming the nature of demand in chemicals and other industries. Far-sighted companies around the world are already adapting their strategies for success in today’s New Normal.
The time for action to protect European chemicals is now
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”. As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
China’s housing market moves from boom to bust
China’s housing inventory is now at a record 25 months. Prices/demand continue to fall. And local government land sale income has already fallen 1/3rd since 2021 to $800 billion, with a further 10% fall to expected this year. And so now services are having to be cut.
Scenario planning key amid volatility
Russia’s invasion is a major wake-up call about the danger of assuming business will always be “as usual”. The window for investing in future growth is starting to close. As Hemingway warned in “Fiesta”, major changes (such as Net Zero) occur “gradually, then suddenly”.
Prepare for a K-shaped recession with Winners & Losers
This is why we are facing a K-shaped recession. Companies and investors have a difficult time ahead. They not only have to navigate a potentially major downturn. But they also have to completely reposition their portfolios for the New Normal world that will follow.
The stock market bubble starts to burst
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
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