By John Richardson THE PROPOSITION that petrochemicals and polymers demand in the developed will see a V-shaped recovery in 2021 assumes two things. One is that demand will have fallen in 2019 versus last year and the second is that the worst of economic times are behind us. There are so, so many challenges to […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Retreat of globalisation and implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson EVER SINCE the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, and the last great geopolitical struggle came to an end, the petrochemicals business has benefited from a highly globalised world. Product has flowed, almost seamlessly, from one country to another in ever greater volumes. Sure, it has never been the case of feedstock advantage […]
European petrochemicals at risk of delayed demand collapse as new business model emerges
By John Richardson AS DELEGATES take part in this year’s virtual annual European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting, they need to try and get to the bottom of the mystery of why demand for the product at the heart of the steam cracker business – polyethylene (PE) – has done so surprisingly well. Once they have […]
Petrochemicals and autos: the last 50 years provide little guide to the future
By John Richardson IT HAS been an amazingly half a century of innovation for the petrochemicals industry. The light-weighting of automobiles, combined with booming demand for autos, has delivered many billions of dollars of value to companies. The latest figures from the American Chemistry Council, which only cover North America, give a pointer towards the […]
Rate of recovery hugely reliant on effectiveness of government policies
By John Richardson UNLESS MORE action is taken by developed countries to help counter the impact of the pandemic in developing countries, we could see a bifurcated world. The developing world might suffer a lost generation of growth as the developed world fully recovers. But this, in my view, is a highly unlikely scenario. Failure […]
China bans on single-use plastics move forward with major recycling investments likely
By John Richardson THIS EVENT slipped under most people’s radar in the midst of the pandemic crisis: on 10 July, multiple provinces across China (we don’t know which provinces and how many provinces) were told to submit plans by mid-August on how they were going to implement a central government crackdown on plastic waste. I […]
China’s polyethylene demand good so far in 2020 but beware of risks ahead
Note that all the comparisons in this post are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart, completing my analysis of supply and demand for China’s major petrochemicals and polymers in January-July, seems to indicate nothing much to be concerned about. If only the future were the same. What you […]
The pandemic and petrochemicals demand: a whole new approach is required
By John Richardson MONITORING demand has never been harder because of the pandemic. One of my colleagues on the ICIS Pricing team was, for example, last week told by one of his reliable contacts that polyethylene (PE) demand was good, bad or indifferent. It used to be that if you talked to the people you […]
China’s new five-year-plan to accelerate petrochemicals self-sufficiency
By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a living? […]
Why history might not even rhyme next year if economic recovery fails to arrive
By John Richardson WE were very lucky in 2010, as the above chart illustrates. Global demand for polyethylene (PE), which had fallen to minus 3% in 2008 because of the Global Financial Crisis, bounced back to 10% growth. We were lucky for two reasons. Firstly, the world’s financial system was rescued, which at one stage […]