By John Richardson IT important to be relentlessly realistic about the risks no confronting emerging markets in general, now that China is focusing much more on its own internal problems and needs. One of these risks – reduced funding of infrastructure and other projects in the emerging world by Chinese banks – was highlighted in this […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Poverty Alleviation Matters More Than GDP
By John Richardson RICH people, relatively speaking, don’t buy that many chemicals and polymers – hence, poverty reduction matters from a dollars and cents as well as a moral perspective. Thus, a report released this week by the Asian Development Bank, Support for Inclusive Growth, makes for very disturbing reading. David Pilling from the FT, […]
China’s About Turn: The Seven Global Implications
By John Richardson HISTORIANS will end up concluding that falling emerging market currencies and stock markets – the prelude to what could be a full-blown crisis – is really about China and not about the US Federal Reserve. The Fed is just a sideshow to the main event of what is going to drive not […]
“Fragile Five” Now “The Exposed Eight”
By John Richardson IT used to be just the “Fragile Five” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. But last week, the Financial Times, drawing on data and analysis from Schroders, added three more countries to the list of those most-exposed to Fed tapering: Hungary, Poland and Chile. Thus we needed a new handy […]
China’s Debts: Close Your Eyes, Hope For The Best
By John Richardson LACK of transparency is fine when any economy is booming. Think of Indonesia pre-1998 before the fall of Soeharto. No foreign or local investor really cared that much about where the suitcases of money were going because the price of corruption was well worth paying. Similarly in the US before 2008, most […]
The WTO “Bali” Deal Versus ASEAN Priorities
By John Richardson WHY sacrifice national or regional growth for the sake of freer global trade? This is a question the blog has been asking itself since the breakthrough last week at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks in Bali. This follows our earlier thoughts on how regional trading blocs may become much more significant. […]
Less Rather Than More Petchems Free Trade
By John Richardson A LOT of the talk at this year’s GPCA conference in Dubai was of the need for more free trade in petrochemicals. There seems to be a risk that as more countries develop refinery and petrochemicals businesses, free trade will decline rather than increase. Creating and protecting jobs will, surely, be a […]
China Polyester “Too Big To Fail”
By John Richardson HAVE some companies in the polyester chain in China worked themselves into a position where they are “too big to fail?” And might capacity additions carry on, despite Beijing’s attempts to rein-in further additions to already oversupplied industrial sectors such as the polyester chain? These were some of the questions the blog […]
China’s Overshadowing Economic Importance
By John Richardson AS we head into this weekend’s crucial November plenum , it is worth remembering that there is no chemicals and polymers market to compare with China’s in volume terms anywhere else in Asia. Take polyproplyene (PP) as just one example. Industry estimates are that China’s consumption totalled around 16m tonnes in 2012. Its […]
Malaysia’s Scary Investment And Spending Bubbles
Source: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com By John Richardson Will this time really be different in Southeast Asia? Everyone hopes so. But the arguments put forward by economist Jesse Colombo back in January – about investment bubbles building up across the region – served as an early warning that it is possible we are heading for another economic crisis […]
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