By John Richardson UNLESS MORE action is taken by developed countries to help counter the impact of the pandemic in developing countries, we could see a bifurcated world. The developing world might suffer a lost generation of growth as the developed world fully recovers. But this, in my view, is a highly unlikely scenario. Failure […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s policy dilemma: raising local demand while protecting exports
By John Richardson IN THIS Western-centric world, a huge amount of ink is split over the consequences of US presidential elections and this year’s the poll, which as always takes place in November, is no exception. The result will of course have huge global economic and geopolitical consequences. But I believe that the outcomes […]
The pandemic and petrochemicals demand: a whole new approach is required
By John Richardson MONITORING demand has never been harder because of the pandemic. One of my colleagues on the ICIS Pricing team was, for example, last week told by one of his reliable contacts that polyethylene (PE) demand was good, bad or indifferent. It used to be that if you talked to the people you […]
Why history might not even rhyme next year if economic recovery fails to arrive
By John Richardson WE were very lucky in 2010, as the above chart illustrates. Global demand for polyethylene (PE), which had fallen to minus 3% in 2008 because of the Global Financial Crisis, bounced back to 10% growth. We were lucky for two reasons. Firstly, the world’s financial system was rescued, which at one stage […]
Vaccine hopes versus reality and the implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson THE WONDERFUL poet, T.S. Eliot, wrote “humankind cannot bear very much reality”. One of the realities that I believe many us have failed to come to terms with is that an effective coronavirus vaccine isn’t just a few months away, but is instead several years away. I believe we will eventually get […]
China’s shift towards styrene self-sufficiency adds to pressure for new petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson IT IS dead simple, apparently. All you have to do is find alternative geographical markets to China as China moves towards petrochemicals self-sufficiency and everything will be fine. In my view there is just one slight problem with this commonly- expressed argument: The data. The data on every product show that China […]
China polyolefins market H1 review: so far so good, but beware of the risks ahead
By John Richardson ALL looks fine in the polyolefins world. The Old Normal appears to have reasserted itself as Chinese demand has come roaring back. (Note that all the following numbers are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated.) H1 2020 data shows that polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (net imports plus local production) grew by […]
China consulate closure underlines long-term split with US, potential big shift in petchems trade flows
The views in this blog post are, as always, my personal views and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A VIEW often expressed is that if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November, relationships between the US and China will greatly improve. I believe, though, that the […]
China paraxylene imports head for bigger declines as excess industrial production appears to boost GDP
By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE see the 9.9% year-on-year rise in China’s crude oil imports in January-May as a sign that China’s economy has come roaring back from the coronavirus. They have been even more encouraged by the 33% surge in China’s oil imports in July. It is sadly not as simple as this, as […]
Global polyethylene oversupply, the highest in 19 years, hasn’t gone away
By John Richardson BRENT crude futures surged by 80% during the second quarter and enjoyed their best three months since 1990, when, during the first Gulf War, they jumped by 142%. The market, as I discussed last month, has been heavily supported by China buying lots of oil when prices were cheap. As Reuters reports, […]