By John Richardson SORRY to labour the point but this comes from a genuine concern for the readers of this blog, including many of our valued ICIS customers: the above chart, if you have been following the blog over the last six years, should come as no surprise. You may, as a result, already have […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s long-term ambition for paraxylene self-sufficiency seems close to being realised
On Friday, I examined how China’s paraxylene (PX) net imports could fall to as little 8m tonnes in 2020 from last year’s 16m tonnes. This would have major negative implications for the big exporters to China such as South Korea, Japan and India. I believe this is the beginning of a long-term shift – the […]
China’s big declines in 2020 PX and PP imports: the impact on its major trading partners
By John Richardson CHINA’S refineries and petrochemicals plants came roaring back to almost full production in April as the country’s coronavirus lockdown came to an end, even though downstream manufacturing was a long way from full recovery. As of last week, I was told by my contacts in China that petrochemicals and polymers buyers were […]
Paraxylene demand collapses as higher China production threatens 6m tonne fall in imports
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you that a decline in stock markets would happen. The post-March rally in equities was never going to be sustainable because of the enormous size of the damage to the real economy. We may see rebounds, of course, as we did on Friday as extreme volatility is […]
Main Street versus Wall Street and the crisis in the developing world
By John Richardson RISING equity and oil markets do not necessarily point to a V-shaped recovery. I know I’ve said this on several previous occasions, but it is critically important that petrochemicals companies and their customers see through the fog. I therefore need to re-emphasise the risks ahead. This useful article from The Guardian presents […]
Coronavirus, impact on the developing world and the scale of demand losses
By John Richardson ALL OF us are struggling to come to terms with a collapse in the global economy that is poised to be worse than the Great Depression – in Britain’s case its deepest recession since the “Great Frost” of 1709. In the US, Wall Street analysts expect the US unemployment rate to still […]
Coronavirus, reshoring and the polyester industry: Good luck with that
By John Richardson POLITICIANS, not just including the Populist variety, are talking a lot about reshoring or bringing back home manufacturing supply chains in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This is partly because China’s shutdown of its manufacturing capacity in February and early March made legislators wake up to the world’s heavy reliance on China […]
Beware of the fragile nature of the oil and petrochemical price recovery
By John Richardson RECENT rises in oil and petrochemicals prices should not in my view be taken as a signal that the worst phase of the coronavirus crisis is over. Please, please be careful out there. The extent of the rebound in crude should be a cause for concern given the state of supply and […]
Coronavirus and the way forward: Forecasting micro surges in petrochemicals demand
By John Richardson THE MONTH of May is normally a low season for toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) demand in Europe because of reduced consumption of goods such as sofas and beds filled with flexible foams made from TDI. Perhaps not this year. There are reports from our market editors of long queues outside some furniture stores […]
Coronavirus may have made China province-level petchems data even more important
By John Richardson WHEN THE coronavirus crisis first hit China most of the focus was of course on Hubei province – the epicentre of the outbreak. One of the immediate effects was the collapse of petrochemical, automobile, steel, food processing and textiles production – the province’s biggest industries. Wind the clock forward to last week […]