GLOBAL PE capacity in 2023-2030 may have to be 23m tonnes/year lower than the ICIS base case to bring markets back into balance
Asian Chemical Connections
Exporters of HDPE lose estimated $1.1bn of China sales in H1 2023
Total estimated losses by eight of the major HDPE exporting countries in sales to China was $1.1bn in H1 2023 versus H1 2022.
Demographics, sustainability and 1bn tonne less global polymers demand
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
China’s one-off PE demand boom and why consumption could now shrink
The ICIS Base Case is already very conservative, assuming an annual average China PE demsnd growth of just 2% per year between 2023 and 2025 compared with 11% in 2000-2022. But I see average growth of only 1% or even minus 2% as perfectly possible.
Why China’s HDPE demand could decline in 2023-2040
China’s cumulative HDPE demand under the downside scenario would be 97m tonnes lower than our base case. in the above chart
How to manage risks and opportunities during maybe the worst-ever PP downcycle
During this downturn, razor-like focus on fluctuating netbacks and supply and demand among all the different countries and regions will allow producers to ensure that they don’t make product for markets where there is no demand, while ensuring that they take maximum advantage of many brief periods of stronger demand and pricing.
Global oversupply of petrochemicals to hit 218m tonnes in 2023 – the highest in any other year since 1990
Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to reach 218m tonnes this year from a 1990-2022 annual average of 76m tonnes.
Why China’s 1990-2022 PP consumption could have been 300m tonnes lower without the benefit of “one off” historical trends
IF China had been a typical developing economy, as the above chart illustrates, its cumulative 1990-2022 could have been 300m tonnes smaller. As history moves forward,this suggests that China’s long-term demand growth could turn negative
SEA Asia PE market dragged lower by China now container freight rates have fallen.
The decline in container freight rates has opened the SEA PE market to more competition – pulling the region’s spreads closer to the record-low China levels
Collective wishful thinking could be behind the global polyethylene crisis
EVEN IF CHINA’S PE demand grows at 10% in 2023, with very strong growth in other regions, this year’s global capacity would still be 22m tonnes more than demand!