By John Richardson AUTOMOBILES are, of course, a key end-use market for chemicals and polymers and China has been by far the most important global market in autos since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Chinese total vehicles sales soared from 6.3m in 2007 to 24.7m last year. Meanwhile, analysis from Paul Hodges shows that sales […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Overlooked Lending Data Down 64% As Economic Slowdown Continues
By John Richardson FAR too little attention is still being paid to China’s lending data even though this has long been the key measure of whether its economy is accelerating or slowing down. In January 2014, lending in China started to slow down as China’s recently appointed president, Xi Jinping, exerted his authority. At that […]
Evidence Builds Of China Slowdown As Economic Reforms Gather Pace
By John Richardson THE CHINESE economy remains one of the most overlooked threats to the conventional opinion that we are in the midst of a synchronised global economic recovery. Sure, some alarm bells rang with last week’s release of China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The official PMI saw its steepest fall in six years. […]
China’s Polyethylene Market: Three New Scenarios For 2018-2025
By John Richardson THE above slide underlines the growing complexity surrounding China’s economy, politics, society, environmental policies and trading relationship with the US. I’ve placed this complexity in the context of the implications for the polyethylene (PE) industry. The above slide, and the full explanation below, updates my three scenarios from last September. These new […]
China Environment Campaign Creates Global Inflation Threat
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart shows the major role that China has played in driving global inflation, deflation – and now inflation again – since 2008. There is a close link between the movements in China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) in the Eurozone, the US and the UK. The […]
China’s Pollution/Economic Campaign To Reshape Petchems
By John Richardson I BELIEVE that China’s environmental crackdown will continue to disrupt petrochemicals and polymers markets for the next few years. This is not a temporary phenomenon that will largely go away with the end of the September 2017-March 2018 campaign to minimise air pollution in 28 northern cities. Further waves of environmental inspections […]
Asian Polyethylene Producers: What You Must Do Now $70 Crude Is More Likely
By John Richardson THE facts on the ground in global crude markets have shifted even further in just two days. Now it seems more likely that oil prices will rise to $70 a barrel or above in Q1 of next year, possibly even earlier. What has changed are the ramifications of Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption campaign. […]
Crude Oil Prices In 2018: Impact On Naphtha-Based Polyethylene
By John Richardson I WILL explain the full significance of the above charts for the Asian and global polyethylene (PE) industries later on this is post. In short here, though, a great deal hinges on next year’s oil prices, with the possibility that there is more momentum left in today’s rally. And of course […]
Three Scenarios For 2018-2025 China Polyethylene Demand Growth
By John Richardson CHINA leads the world in many aspects of renewable energy and has an electric vehicle industry that is receiving the kind of state support that is very probably making foreign competitors green with envy. The explosion of commerce via the mobile internet takes your breath away. Average per person spending on mobile […]
China Puts Environment Ahead Of GDP As Chemicals Shortages Build
By John Richardson FURTHER evidence has emerged of the Chinese government’s determination to deal with an air pollution crisis that a new study says shortens life spans in China by three years . Local government officials have long been measured by how rapidly they expand GDP growth. But in a quite stunning reversal of policy, Beijing has […]