By John Richardson DEMOGRAPHICS shape demand – everywhere, including in China, as we have been discussing since 2011. Here are a few facts about China’s demographics challenge – from this outstanding Financial Times article by David Pilling – which chemicals company executives need to print out and pin up on their boardroom walls as China heads […]
Asian Chemical Connections
South Korea’s Demographic Challenges
By John Richardson THE blog has been long on South Korea ever since its first visit in 1997. Its economic achievements since the horrors of the Korean War are nothing short of amazing. Bereft of natural resources, all it has had to rely has been its intellectual capital and, wow, look at how it has […]
The Rebirth Of Naphtha Cracking
By John Richardson Might cracking naphtha in Asia, Europe, and perhaps even the US, once again become so attractive that it starts to challenge the big advantage currently being enjoyed by cracking ethane? Yes, perhaps. Opportunities could arise to take advantage of distressed supplies of naphtha from refiners under severe loss-making pressure. Shutting many […]
No Ethylene Margins Peak In 2016
By John Richardson FORECASTS of European capacity closures and project delays and cancellations have led some financial analysts to the conclusion that there will be a peak in ethylene margins from 2016 onwards. This will provide a few years of very strong returns for the global industry before the big wave of US capacity […]
China’s Auto Demand Growth: No Longer As Predictable
By John Richardson WE used to live in a linear world where GDP growth was nearly always on the increase and there was a very close linkage between the growth in any overall economy and the rise in demand for chemicals and polymers. It’s all about throwing darts at a metaphorical dart board, of course. […]
European Demographics Challenge US Export Assumptions
By John Richardson US feedstock advantages appear to provide an almost overwhelming case for a big wave of cracker and downstream investments, particularly in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). In contrast, Europe is struggling with much-higher feedstock costs and low economic growth, resulting in the possibility of many more capacity closures. Only last week, for […]
Germany’s Long-term Economic Challenges
Source of graph: Eurostat By John Richardson AS delegates gather for this year’s European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting in Berlin, which takes place on 5-9 October, it might be tempting to believe that Europe has turned the corner. Supporting this argument has been the release of lots of positive economy data recently. For example, […]
Demographics And Shale Gas
By John Richardson GLOBAL shale resources are large enough to cover more than a decade of oil consumption, writes the FT in this article, quoting the US Department of Energy. And as my colleague Nigel Davis writes in this, as usual, excellent Insight article, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has upwardly revised its estimate of worldwide recoverable […]
European Processors Bemoan Volatility
By John Richardson THE blog listened to an interesting discussion yesterday, on the first day of the 2nd ICIS World Polyolefins Conference in Berlin, during which plastics processors tackled the perennial issue of volatility. They complained that: *Trying to build long-term relationships with producers is difficult because polymer sales guys only stay in their jobs […]
Germany’s Skills Shortage
By John Richardson GERMANY’S engineering and chemicals companies are the envy of the world as a result of their ability to find perfect niches in the global value chain. The sophisticated machinery and chemicals needed by China to fulfil its role as the cheap workshop of the world are often provided by Germany, for example. […]
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