By John Richardson WHAT if the number of new vehicle sales in China reached a long term peak of 28.9m in 2017? What if the declines in sales that we saw in 2018 continue or that at the very best sales remain flat? “Let’s put this in perspective, though. Just look at how the market […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Oil at $58-69 over next year as focus switches to demand
Guest blogger today is again Ajay Parmar in the second his posts. He is a chemical engineering professional with 5 years of industrial experience in oil refining, primarily in a process engineering capacity.He joined ICIS in 2018 as a Senior Analyst and currently works on developing a price forecasting model for crude oil and refined […]
China 2018 polypropylene demand growth lowest in six years
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polypropylene (PP) grew by 4.7% in 2018 over the previous year as the impact of the fall in auto and other durable goods sales hit the market hard, is my preliminary estimate. This would represent the lowest annual growth since 2012. Apparent demand, which is net imports plus […]
The polyethylene world is now even more hooked on China
By John Richardson CHINA’S NET PE imports look likely to have risen by an average of 20% in 2018 over the previous year across the three major grades. Apparent demand (net imports plus local production) looks as if it will be 12% higher. So much for excessive doom and gloom about the Chinese economy then? […]
Trade war fears return as US LLDPE becomes more exposed to China
By John Richardson THE ground has shifted under our feet once again. Just as it seemed as if the US and China would complete a trade deal by the 2 March deadline, the prospects of an agreement have suddenly diminished. This is the result of the Trump administration declining an offer from two Chinese vice-ministers […]
US/China trade deal in March would likely quickly unravel
By John Richardson YOU CAN bet on a rally in equity markets and in oil prices if some kind of deal is announced by the US and China over their trade dispute by the 1 March deadline. But we could be back to Square One if a deal is then picked apart by President Trump’s […]
China slowdown: After Apple, next wake-up call will be from auto markets
By John Richardson THE NEXT big wake-up fall for global financial markets and the chemicals industry is likely to ring loud from the autos market. Expect global auto sales growth estimates for 2019 to be revised downwards with a steep sell-off in the share prices of the major car producers, as everyone realises that sales […]
You must not assume a Goldilocks oil price in 2019 – not too hot, not cold
By John Richardson TIME AND again people get oil markets wrong because they entirely focus on the physical supply and demand of the black stuff whilst ignoring the pivotal role that financial speculators play in driving prices higher or lower. Since 2000, futures speculation has greatly increased because of regulatory liberalisation, as I wrote in […]
Scenario 1 inevitable? Are you really, really, hand on heart, that sure?
ICIS and the UK–based chemicals company International eChem had the privilege of making a presentation during the Knowledge Sharing Partners event at last month’s GPCA Forum in Dubai. The conference was organised by our excellent ICIS Conferences team. Please click this link for a copy of our slides: ICISConsultingPresentationGPCA2018 If you would like to further discuss […]
Negative Asian polyolefins margins show need for recession planning
ASIAN PE and PP spreads turned negative in October this year for the first time since the same month five years earlier. As spreads turned negative it seems certain that margins would have been in deeper negative territory as spreads don’t account for the full costs of production. Back in October 2014 the sharp fall […]