By John Richardson MIDDLE EAST, southeast Asian (SEA) and northeast Asia (NEA) ex-China petrochemicals producers need to transform themselves because of China’s rising self-sufficiency. In polypropylene, styrene monomer (SM), ethylene glycols, paraxylene and methanol, China has the potential to by itself reach complete self-sufficiency over the next two-to-five years from its position today of being […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polyolefins for the rest of 2021: supply to lengthen as demand muddle continues
By John Richardson SOMEHOW, despite the still very serious container freight shortages that have limited imports, buying sentiment seems to have weakened in the European polyolefins market, according to my outstanding ICIS colleague, Linda Naylor. Our excellent ICIS Pricing team in Asia are also sensing a shift in the mood in southeast Asia (SEA) as […]
China PP and styrene Q1 apparent demand seems to indicate slowdown
By John Richardson WE MUST BE careful here. If 2020 taught is anything, it is that China has the capability of stunning everybody with the speed of its economic growth, even against a backdrop of a much slower global economy. Few people imagined, including myself, that in the dark days of March last year, China […]
Global supply chain disruptions may maintain, or even add to, regional petchem imbalances
By John Richardson THE GLOBAL petrochemicals business looks set to remain largely in the dark about what will happen next to container freight and semiconductor supply. This a new area of risk for producers and buyers that highlights the need for much better analysis and data on the pandemic’s impact on markets. Let me begin […]
China threatens to shift global petrochemicals from inflation to deflation as self-sufficiency increases
By John Richardson POLYPROPYLENE (PP) producers in Europe and the US are making very good money as the slide below shows, detailing LPG-based variable cost margins. In Asia, where margins have long lagged behind the other two regions, profitability has also picked up. Demand isn’t going to be the problem Part of the explanation is […]
China government focus changes to reigning in credit, controlling debts
By John Richardson CHINESE government statements have always been incredibly important for fathoming the country’s economic direction and this year will be no exception. We need to constantly parse the tone of statements to sense changes in direction. “The current complex and severe international environment have added new uncertainties, the domestic economic recovery is not […]
China ethylene glycols and paraxylene: new 2021-2031 import scenarios as self-sufficiency threat increases
By John Richardson WHEN I WAS a boy in 1970s Britain, a new pair of shoes was an expensive proposition and so I had to make them last. Durable goods in general were costly relative to incomes, so many people rented televisions and had to save long and hard to buy new sofas. But then […]
Iran may gain 48% of total China HDPE imports, 85% of LDPE imports by 2025 because of new deal
By John Richardson IRAN and China earlier this month signed a wide-ranging economic and security agreement that has been under negotiation for five years. The deal involves $400bn of investment in the overall Iranian economy with as much as $280bn of spending on oil, gas and petrochemicals. Before I crunch the data and demonstrate how […]
China early data points to 42% fall in 2021 HDPE imports
By John Richardson China’s high-density polyethylene (HDPE) imports in 2021 look as if they might collapse versus last year, according to the early data for this year (see the above chart). The same could apply to polypropylene (PP) and styrene monomer (SM) imports, as I discussed earlier this week. The potential 40% decline in HDPE […]
China early data point to PP imports collapsing by 78% this year with SM 67% lower
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polyethylene, polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene fell during the first two months of this year versus November-December 2020. I have yet to crunch the data on the rest of the major products, but I suspect the trend will be the same. (This comparison is the only […]