By John Richardson SOMEHOW, despite the still very serious container freight shortages that have limited imports, buying sentiment seems to have weakened in the European polyolefins market, according to my outstanding ICIS colleague, Linda Naylor. Our excellent ICIS Pricing team in Asia are also sensing a shift in the mood in southeast Asia (SEA) as […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s polyethylene imports set to remain very strong in 2021
By John Richardson DEMAND, as I discussed on 11 February, will not be a problem for the global polyethylene (PE) business in 2021. We could see a continuation of the pandemic-related demand patterns we saw in 2020 if say problems with variants of the virus prevent us from moving significantly closer to herd immunity. The […]
China petrochemicals overstocking likely substantial as Q1 slowdown risks increase
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart on the left – showing average month-on-month percentage increases in China’s polypropylene (PP) imports in 2009-2019 versus the pattern in 2020 – underlines my argument that the production and export-led recovery that China enjoyed last year was part of a government plan. You can see the same pattern in […]
China slowdown: Loss of 7m tonnes of global PP demand points to new investment model
By John Richardson CHINA’S influence on the world economy has grown to such an extent over the last decade that is now a bigger driver of growth than the US and the EU combined, says Eurizon SLJ Asset Management. The US impact on global GDP shrunk from just over 40% in 1989-1998 to half that […]
China’s PE market in 2019 at risk of lower growth
By John Richardson THIS MIGHT turn out to be another good year for Chinese PE demand growth as the preliminary estimate from our China team is that 2018 consumption growth will be 7% compared with last year. This compares with the forecast in our Supply & Demand database of a 5.4% increase. The above […]
China PP growth at risk from lower auto sales, trade war
By John Richardson WE EXPECT China’s PP demand to rise by 6.5% in 2018 to total consumption of 27.8m tonnes. We then expect a further increase of 6% to 29.3m tonnes next year. It is too early to say for certain, but there is a risk that 2018 and 2019 PP demand growth will be […]
PE margins turn negative as economic risks build
By John Richardson CASH margins for Asian linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) for naphtha-based producers have turned negative for the first time since Q1 2015, according to an industry contact. And this is of course before the flood of new US LLDPE production arrives in Asia. No matter how you crunch the numbers, the likely increase […]
China PP Imports To Halve By 2025 Or Turn Into Exports
By John Richardson CHINA IS accelerating its drive towards at the very least much greater PP self-sufficiency by 2025. There is also a credible second scenario where China becomes a significant exporter by that same year, most logically to the Asia and Pacific (A&P) region due to proximity and what will be stronger geopolitical and […]
Why China Can Become Major Polypropylene Exporter By 2025
By John Richardson ONE of the main topics of debate in the global polypropylene (PP) business is whether or not China will become entirely self-sufficient. The pessimists, or rather I would say the realists, go a step further. They believe that there is every chance that China will become a significant exporter. The final result […]
China’s Polypropylene Market: The Big Inland Growth Opportunities
By John Richardson A CONVENTIONAL WAY to assess the pace of polymers demand growth in a developing country is to assume links with historical patterns in developing countries. How long did it take the US, Western Europe and other developed economies to reach their current level of per capita consumption? From these rates of increase, […]
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