By John Richardson PRESERVING working capital is the key for chemicals industry purchasing managers and finance directors as we head into what I believe will be a global recession. The problem for chemicals companies is having the confidence to ignore conventional opinion which time and again is wrong as it is so often driven by […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US and China: Intellectual property rights and maybe some historical amnesia
By John Richardson THE SMARTPHONE is a wonderful invention as it allows easy mobile access to the internet for many small businesses. Accounts can be updated and invoices sent on the go when builders, plumbers and bricklayers are between jobs, say my friends who are in these trades in Perth, Western Australia. Also think of […]
Latest global chemicals production data indicate recession likely very close
By John Richardson ONE OF THE useful things about chemicals industry data is that they are an early indicator of macroeconomic trends because chemicals are of course the raw materials for so many finished goods. If demand for chemicals rises this serves as an early indicator of stronger sales of TVs, smartphones, autos, computers and […]
Iran-China PE trade and the sanctions: short term dip but long term big increase
By John Richardson IRANIAN exports of PE to China will likely suffer a temporary decline because of financing and logistics problems resulting from the new US sanctions against Iran. The US dollar now needs to be entirely avoided with trade needing to migrate to the yuan, the euro and other currencies. And as my ICIS […]
Big jump in China PE imports points to destocking as demand prospects weaken
By John Richardson CHINA’S official PE imports and exports are finally out for January-September 2018 after a very long delay. Until a week ago, official data was only available up until March. Reasons for the delayed release are not understood. What the data show is that on a year-on-year basis, net imports (imports minus exports) […]
President Trump’s “very good” call with President Xi: Nothing changes
PRESIDENT TRUMP said yesterday that his discussions with President Xi Jinping were “moving along nicely” following a “very good” telephone call ahead of their critical G20 meeting at the end of November. But on the same day that the US president made his comment, the US Justice Department issued indictments against Chinese and Taiwanese semiconductor companies over […]
US GDP growth peaks as economic challenges build
A FULL two percentage points of US third quarter growth of 3.5% was down to stock building. Total US inventories grew by $76bn in Q3 following a $37bn contraction in the second quarter. The fourth quarter is always a period of destocking in the US and everywhere. This will combine with the big build-up in […]
Global recession approaches as chems data weakens, debt problems build
THE CHEMICALS industry is the “industry of industries” – upstream of all the manufacturing chains. This is why what is happening in chemicals serves as such an important early indicator. Take a look at the above chart – the latest from the American Chemistry Council. It shows that during September, capacity utilisation in the global […]
China’s PE market in 2019 at risk of lower growth
By John Richardson THIS MIGHT turn out to be another good year for Chinese PE demand growth as the preliminary estimate from our China team is that 2018 consumption growth will be 7% compared with last year. This compares with the forecast in our Supply & Demand database of a 5.4% increase. The above […]
China PP growth at risk from lower auto sales, trade war
By John Richardson WE EXPECT China’s PP demand to rise by 6.5% in 2018 to total consumption of 27.8m tonnes. We then expect a further increase of 6% to 29.3m tonnes next year. It is too early to say for certain, but there is a risk that 2018 and 2019 PP demand growth will be […]