Is it better to be right for not quite……

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……all the right reasons than to be wrong altogether?

Sounds a dumb question, perhaps – unless you take particular pride in being one of those know-it-alls.

The point I am trying to make (and assuming that chemicals pricing doesn’t collapse …

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Is China repeating the mistakes of the US?

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My current favourite blogger is Michael Pettis, professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, who, in his latest post, makes a very worrying point below.

As an aside, and without wanting to take the 1930s analogy too far, this …

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It’s getting darker and darker out there

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It would be nice to start the weekend with a little cheer, but I’m afraid no amount of gormless optimism would work.

DuPont, as you can see from this excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis at ICIS, has revised …

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China’s economy: A case of wishful thinking?

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Could the chemicals industry be in danger of wanting to believe something so much that ignores overwhelming evidence to the contrary?

The widespread perception is that China’s economy has reached a turning point.

“The worst of the crisis is over …

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Do you need a Joseph Kennedy moment?

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Referring to the famous story about how Joseph Kennedy sold his shares on the eve of the Wall Street Crash after being given investment tips by a shoe-shine boy, my answer to the above is a definitive YES.

Over the …

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The China Recovery Conundrum

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Good news, bad or indifferent? It was hard to gauge a clear picture from the Q1 macroeconomic numbers for China.

While retail sales grew at 14.7% in March compared with 11.5% in February, exports fell 20% during the first quarter.…

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China polyolefin speculation gets worse

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See the piece below.

I suspect polyolefin pricing will fall a lot further:

A Singapore-based polyolefin trader took a telephone call during a lunch meeting a few weeks ago from his counterpart on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE).

“Sell, sell, …

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Some important new petchem trends

To keep you updated on what we believe is happening in petrochemicals, here are some important recent trends:

*Futures markets in China are playing an increasingly important role in influencing pricing in polyolefins, methanol and PTA. Trading volume on the …

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Asian petchems: A H2 Outlook

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Petrochemical markets, as is the case with stock markets, are I believe in the midst of a bear-market rally.

As chemicals consultant Paul Hodges predicted on his blog last year, restocking in Q1 was inevitable after the great inventory run-down …

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US petchem exports to lessen the pain?

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There are reports, confirmed by one consultant, of a flood of US polyolefin exports from the US to Asia, China in particular.

Staggering polyolefin import figures for China in January-February show big percentage increases both year-on-year and month-on-month. The March …

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