By John Richardson THERE seems to be a new consensus emerging over an ethylene capacity addition shortage between 2013 and 2017. Many of the projects that are supposed to come on-stream during that period will either be delayed, or perhaps might even be cancelled, think a growing number of people. The future of some of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The Hedgehog And The Fox
By John Richardson Are there more hedgehogs in the chemicals industry than foxes? This thought came to the blog after meetings with industry executives this week during its latest visit to Singapore. Bear with us and we will, we promise, as quickly as possible get to the point. The philosopher Isaiah Berlin, in his famous […]
Asia Ex-China: The Outlook For 2014 And Beyond
By John Richardson IN a special series of blog posts over the next few weeks we will re-examine the outlook for the major Asian petrochemical producing countries, ex-China. The posts won’t necessarily appear every day, as important news events may require immediate analysis, but our aim is to finish the series by mid-October. Last month, […]
It Is Not A Question Of If, But Rather When
By John Richardson IT is not a question if, but rather when Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang decide that enough is enough and get on with tackling China’s growing financial imbalances. That is if they don’t want the whole house of cards to eventually collapse, which we believe is not the case. These imbalances have […]
Analyse The Data And Listen To Li Keqiang
By John Richardson IT IS important to look at long-term trends in China rather than be misled by a few positive sets of data. This is not pessimism, just realism. Yesterday saw the release of very good August export data. Exports were up by 7.2% from year earlier, and were 5.1% higher than in July […]
Come On Mr Abbott, Please
By John Richardson TONY Abbott, in his victory speech on Saturday following the Coalition victory in the Australian Federal Election, renewed his pledge to scrap the carbon tax, stop the boat people and bring the budget back into surplus. Come on Mr Abbott, please. The blog has to admit, in this time of nonsensical sound-bite politics, […]
Every Time You Dip Your Toe In The Water…
By John Richardson EVERY time you dip your toe in the water the political temperature in China can feel a little different. For instance, in this article in the New York Times, published on 19 July, the newspaper wrote: “Communist Party cadres have filled meeting halls around China to hear a sombre, secretive warning issued […]
China’s Balancing Act: Reforming Land Rights And Hukou
Xi Jinping By John Richardson THE good health of China’s economy and the future of the Communist Party depend on giving farmers individual land-ownership rights and allowing equal rights for migrants in cities, an official from a leading Beijing-based government think tank told Bloomberg in this article. “Land and hukou reform is the cornerstone […]
China: Realism Is Not The Same As Pessimism
By John Richardson A CRUCIAL meeting takes place in China in November – the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee. More commonly referred to as “the November plenum”, the outcomes of the meeting will help determine the economic success or failure of China over the long term. President Xi […]
Thailand: Build A Contingency Plan
Source: Petroleum Institute of Thailand By John Richardson IT can be argued that Thailand is in a better state than fellow ASEAN members Indonesia and Malaysia. Government spending in Thailand relative to GDP is said to be lower than in both Indonesia and Malaysia. Compared with Malaysia, Thailand also has a larger working-age population, […]
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