By John Richardson IN SEPTEMBER last year, I had thought that China might raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% by as early as 2022 over its end-2017 level of 23.5m tonnes. Now, though, our updated data show the potential for a staggering 113% increase over the next four years, when you look […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Polyethylene Market: Three New Scenarios For 2018-2025
By John Richardson THE above slide underlines the growing complexity surrounding China’s economy, politics, society, environmental policies and trading relationship with the US. I’ve placed this complexity in the context of the implications for the polyethylene (PE) industry. The above slide, and the full explanation below, updates my three scenarios from last September. These new […]
How US Could Be Squeezed Out Of Europe’s Polyethylene Market
By John Richardson EARLIER this year a commonly held view was that globalisation would slip into reverse gear with the very real prospect of a global trade war. But this view didn’t take into account China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, the launch of which predated the election of Donald Trump as US president […]
Benefits, Risks Of Petronas/Aramco Deals Serving As Template
By John Richardson THE PETRONAS and Saudi Aramco joint ventures in the RAPID refining-to-petrochemicals project in Malaysia may serve as a template for further “win/win deals”. Whilst these deals will substantially benefit the companies and countries involved, there are broader risks that I’ll discuss at the end of this blog post. Back in February, Aramco […]
China’s Xi: Squaring Circle Of Poverty Alleviation, Environment
By John Richardson THE ONLY China that most foreigners have visited, including myself, is the southern and eastern seaboard provinces where all the talk is about booming poylolefins and other polymers demand on the rise in middle class consumption. So strong is middle class consumption growth via mobile internet sales that the multiples of polyethylene […]
Next Polyethylene Downcycle: Risk That History Will Repeat Itself
By John Richardson WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database: 2000-2001: Global polyethylene (PE) operating rates dipped to an average of 81% on the end […]
Threat To US Polyethylene From President Trump’s Iran Decision
By John Richardson THE geopolitical and economic relationship between China and Iran was already very strong even before Donald Trump decertified the Iranian nuclear deal. Now, though, Iran and China could draw even closer. This could pose a major threat to the US polyethylene (PE) industry as it ramps-up capacity. Here, first of all, is […]
China Continues Deleveraging With Reforms Set To Accelerate….
…global risks remain elevated and so beware of complacency By John Richardson THE conventional view is that China has stimulated its economy to perfection ahead of the important 19th National Party Congress which begins in Beijing on 18 October. The theory goes that President Xi Jinping has kept the lending spigot firmly open in order […]
Three Scenarios For 2018-2025 China Polyethylene Demand Growth
By John Richardson CHINA leads the world in many aspects of renewable energy and has an electric vehicle industry that is receiving the kind of state support that is very probably making foreign competitors green with envy. The explosion of commerce via the mobile internet takes your breath away. Average per person spending on mobile […]
How China’s OBOR Will Re-Order Global Petchems Value Chains
By John Richardson EVERY petrochemicals company needs to understand the above map and its implications for global trade flows over the next 20 years. Failure to understand and respond to what this map is telling you would be a very costly error. Let’s start with understanding what One Belt, One Road actually means: The One […]
Jump to page: