By John Richardson IT IS ONCE again a critical moment in forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals industry and with it, of course, the direction of the global industry, as the global industry so heavily depends on China. If China’s deficits were to entirely disappear, what would many of us then do for a living? […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Vaccine hopes versus reality and the implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson THE WONDERFUL poet, T.S. Eliot, wrote “humankind cannot bear very much reality”. One of the realities that I believe many us have failed to come to terms with is that an effective coronavirus vaccine isn’t just a few months away, but is instead several years away. I believe we will eventually get […]
China paraxylene and ethylene glycols apparent demand booms as real demand remains weak
All the numbers below are comparisons on a year-on-year basis By John Richardson WHERE HAVE all of China’s paraxylene (PX) and ethylene glycols (EG) gone? With suggestions that other commodities such as steel are being stockpiled, this is a question that must be answered as we assess what […]
China’s shift towards styrene self-sufficiency adds to pressure for new petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson IT IS dead simple, apparently. All you have to do is find alternative geographical markets to China as China moves towards petrochemicals self-sufficiency and everything will be fine. In my view there is just one slight problem with this commonly- expressed argument: The data. The data on every product show that China […]
Paraxylene demand collapses as higher China production threatens 6m tonne fall in imports
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you that a decline in stock markets would happen. The post-March rally in equities was never going to be sustainable because of the enormous size of the damage to the real economy. We may see rebounds, of course, as we did on Friday as extreme volatility is […]
Beware of the fragile nature of the oil and petrochemical price recovery
By John Richardson RECENT rises in oil and petrochemicals prices should not in my view be taken as a signal that the worst phase of the coronavirus crisis is over. Please, please be careful out there. The extent of the rebound in crude should be a cause for concern given the state of supply and […]
China petrochemical inventories build on what could be false hopes of a V-shaped rebound
By John Richardson AS PETROCHEMICALS storage space in China fills up on the hope that the country can lead the world in economic recovery, here are some important statistics for you to consider: 91% of the more than 500 Chinese companies surveyed by the China Beige Book had reopened by late April, but only 42% […]
Why Asia may win and the US lose in post-virus petchems investment world
As always, these are my personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson IT IS A polyethylene (PE) world turned upside down which, in my view, will remain upside down. With oil prices set to stay around $30/bbl over the long term, the US ethane advantage is in my opinion pretty […]
China recovery appears to lose steam as PE and PP self-sufficiency increases
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I did not warn you. The post-coronavirus recovery in China is already losing steam in April after a rebound in activity in March, according to this Bloomberg article. Domestic consumer sentiment is weak and export orders have collapsed as a result of the global pandemic, according to the wire service, […]
Post-coronavirus world: How China could end up in a stronger position
These are, always, my views only and not the views of ICIS Here is another of attempt at long-term crystal-ball gazing where I again try to imagine the petrochemicals landscape in the post-coronavirus 2025 world. My earlier post had looked at the rise of sustainability and affordability that could work in parallel with the emergence […]