The views in this blog post are, as always, my personal views and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A VIEW often expressed is that if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November, relationships between the US and China will greatly improve. I believe, though, that the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China paraxylene imports head for bigger declines as excess industrial production appears to boost GDP
By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE see the 9.9% year-on-year rise in China’s crude oil imports in January-May as a sign that China’s economy has come roaring back from the coronavirus. They have been even more encouraged by the 33% surge in China’s oil imports in July. It is sadly not as simple as this, as […]
Resilience of global polyethylene demand jeopardised by stimulus withdrawals
By John Richardson THE WORD on the street – what market participants have said about the polyethylene (PE) market – has portrayed a very consistent story since the pandemic began: Robust demand, despite what on paper is an enormous loss of incomes and wealth. One theory put forward to explain the resilience of demand is […]
Global polyethylene oversupply, the highest in 19 years, hasn’t gone away
By John Richardson BRENT crude futures surged by 80% during the second quarter and enjoyed their best three months since 1990, when, during the first Gulf War, they jumped by 142%. The market, as I discussed last month, has been heavily supported by China buying lots of oil when prices were cheap. As Reuters reports, […]
China could be in complete polypropylene self-sufficiency by 2022
By John Richardson SORRY to labour the point but this comes from a genuine concern for the readers of this blog, including many of our valued ICIS customers: the above chart, if you have been following the blog over the last six years, should come as no surprise. You may, as a result, already have […]
China’s big declines in 2020 PX and PP imports: the impact on its major trading partners
By John Richardson CHINA’S refineries and petrochemicals plants came roaring back to almost full production in April as the country’s coronavirus lockdown came to an end, even though downstream manufacturing was a long way from full recovery. As of last week, I was told by my contacts in China that petrochemicals and polymers buyers were […]
Paraxylene demand collapses as higher China production threatens 6m tonne fall in imports
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you that a decline in stock markets would happen. The post-March rally in equities was never going to be sustainable because of the enormous size of the damage to the real economy. We may see rebounds, of course, as we did on Friday as extreme volatility is […]
Coronavirus will severely damage the developing world unless we take the right steps
By John Richardson IT IS a fantastic achievement. “Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty, and the global poverty rate is now lower than it has ever been in recorded history. This is one of the greatest human achievements of our time,” said World Bank […]
Main Street versus Wall Street and the crisis in the developing world
By John Richardson RISING equity and oil markets do not necessarily point to a V-shaped recovery. I know I’ve said this on several previous occasions, but it is critically important that petrochemicals companies and their customers see through the fog. I therefore need to re-emphasise the risks ahead. This useful article from The Guardian presents […]
Why the EU could become polyethylene self-sufficient in the post-pandemic world
By John Richardson ONE OF the many unknowns about the post-pandemic world is the extent to which the backlash against plastic rubbish will be revived. I certainly hope it is revived, otherwise, combined with climate change, our future looks pretty grim. How will the public – and thus those legislators who need to be elected […]