By John Richardson THE NEXT big wake-up fall for global financial markets and the chemicals industry is likely to ring loud from the autos market. Expect global auto sales growth estimates for 2019 to be revised downwards with a steep sell-off in the share prices of the major car producers, as everyone realises that sales […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Nothing the Fed can do to stop China causing a global recession
By John Richardson US stock markets yesterday demonstrated their worst negative reaction to a US Federal rate rise since 1994. Asian equities also fell this morning in response to the Fed decision. But you would be entirely wrong to conclude that all that needs to happen to return to the bull run is for the […]
G20 meeting: stakes are high for US petchems, manufacturing in general
By John Richardson YOU CAN make an argument that President Trump’s trade policies are good for SMEs that have lost out to China over the last 20 years. But even for some SMEs that source their raw materials from China, the trade war risks causing major damage. Take the example of Colombia Sportswear of Portland, […]
Preserving working capital the key as crisis conditions intensify
By John Richardson PRESERVING working capital is the key for chemicals industry purchasing managers and finance directors as we head into what I believe will be a global recession. The problem for chemicals companies is having the confidence to ignore conventional opinion which time and again is wrong as it is so often driven by […]
Latest global chemicals production data indicate recession likely very close
By John Richardson ONE OF THE useful things about chemicals industry data is that they are an early indicator of macroeconomic trends because chemicals are of course the raw materials for so many finished goods. If demand for chemicals rises this serves as an early indicator of stronger sales of TVs, smartphones, autos, computers and […]
Major crude downside and upside risks for petchems
By John Richardson ONE of the biggest risks for petrochemicals producers has once again become oil prices as we enter a period of weaker demand and longer supply versus the potential for a major geopolitical disruption to supply. Crude prices could easily rise to more than $100/bbl on a geopolitical clash between the US and […]
Negative Asian polyolefins margins show need for recession planning
ASIAN PE and PP spreads turned negative in October this year for the first time since the same month five years earlier. As spreads turned negative it seems certain that margins would have been in deeper negative territory as spreads don’t account for the full costs of production. Back in October 2014 the sharp fall […]
President Trump’s “very good” call with President Xi: Nothing changes
PRESIDENT TRUMP said yesterday that his discussions with President Xi Jinping were “moving along nicely” following a “very good” telephone call ahead of their critical G20 meeting at the end of November. But on the same day that the US president made his comment, the US Justice Department issued indictments against Chinese and Taiwanese semiconductor companies over […]
US equities risk following China as global debt bubble unwinds
THE CENTRAL character of The Big Short was the only person who bothered to read the detail of US mortgage debt securities that were at the heart of the Global Financial Crisis. All of us course now know that these securities were built on sub-prime debt that went wrong and almost caused the collapse of the global […]
China and the end-game of the global credit bubble
WHEN stock markets are rising it makes sense to fund your investments through margin debt. Over the last ten years in particular, this approach has produced stellar results because of the abundance of cheap and easy finance. But the above chart is an example of what can happen when lending tightens and demand for margin […]
Jump to page: